Trump Tariffs Blocked by Supreme Court: What the Ruling Means for Grocery Prices, Inflation, and Your Wallet in 2026

The gap between what politicians say and what shoppers pay has never been wider.

On Tuesday, President Donald Trump told Congress that grocery prices were 'plummeting downward'. He claimed eggs were down 60% and beef was 'starting to come down significantly.' But Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data shows something else entirely. Ground beef hit $6.75 (£4.98) per pound last month. That's a record. It's also up nearly 22% from a year ago.

The mismatch comes just days after the Supreme Court struck down Trump's sweeping tariffs in a 6-3 ruling, setting off a scramble over trade policy, refunds, and what American families can expect at the checkout aisle.

The Facts on Food Prices

Eggs did drop—that part is true. Prices fell about 48% from January 2025 to January 2026, according to BLS data cited by NBC News. That's a real decline, but it's not the 60% Trump announced during his State of the Union address.

Beef tells a different story. Ground beef didn't fall—it climbed to an all-time high of $6.75 (£4.98) per pound, according to the same BLS figures. That's a 22% increase year over year. The president's claim that beef is 'coming down significantly' doesn't match the data.

Overall, grocery prices rose 2.1% over the past year. More items got more expensive than got cheaper. For families already stretched thin, the relief Trump promised hasn't arrived.

What the Court Actually Ruled

The Supreme Court's decision on 20 February was clear. In Learning Resources Inc. v. Trump, the justices ruled 6-3 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act doesn't give the president authority to impose tariffs.

Chief Justice John Roberts, joined by Justices Sotomayor, Kagan, Gorsuch, Barrett, and Jackson, wrote that 'IEEPA does not authorise the President to impose tariffs.' The ruling wiped out the so-called 'Liberation Day' tariffs and other emergency duties that had raised more than $160 billion (£118 billion) for the federal government, according to the Tax Foundation.

But Trump moved fast. Hours after the ruling, he signed an executive order imposing a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The new duties took effect on 24 February. Some products got exemptions, including beef, tomatoes, and oranges. Others didn't.

'The Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs is deeply disappointing,' Trump said at a White House press conference. 'I'm ashamed of certain members of the court.'

Democrats Want Your Money Back

Senate Democrats aren't letting up. Senators Ron Wyden of Oregon, Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, and Ed Markey of Massachusetts introduced legislation on Monday that would force refunds of tariffs collected under the now-illegal duties.

The price tag? The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates the government could owe more than $175 billion (£129 billion) to importers, according to CNBC.

'President Trump's reckless and chaotic tariffs have only caused uncertainty and pain—raising prices on consumers and businesses when they can least afford it,' Shaheen said in a statement.

Whether those refunds ever reach consumers is another question. The Supreme Court's ruling didn't address the issue directly. Justice Brett Kavanaugh noted in his dissent that some costs may have already been passed on to shoppers.

What This Means for Your Budget

The ruling offers some relief, but don't expect grocery bills to drop tomorrow. The Tax Foundation estimates that remaining Section 232 tariffs will still cost US households an average of $400 (£295) this year.

Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that nearly 90% of tariff costs fell on American firms and consumers, not foreign countries. The idea that other nations pay US tariffs? The data says otherwise.

For now, shoppers are left with the same math they've faced for months. Eggs are cheaper than last year. Beef is at a record high. And the 'golden age' Trump declared Tuesday night feels a long way off for anyone watching the register.

The gap between the speech and the receipt isn't closing any time soon.