Trump Pauses Iran Strikes for Five Days After Announcing 'Productive Talks' — But Iran Denies Any Direct Contact

US President Donald Trump ordered a five-day halt to military strikes against Iran's power plants and energy infrastructure on Monday, claiming that 'very good and productive conversations' with Tehran had brought the two sides closer to ending the conflict now in its fourth week. Iran flatly denied that any talks had taken place.

The announcement, posted on Truth Social hours before a 48-hour ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, was set to expire, sending Dow futures surging more than 1,100 points. Brent crude plunged over 14% before settling 11% lower at $99.94 (£74.53) per barrel, its first close below $100 (£74.63) since 11 March.

Experts Rallied on a Claim Tehran Says Isn't True

By the close, the Dow had gained 631 points, or 1.38%. The S&P 500 rose 1.15%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.38%. All three posted their best session since early February.

That rally now faces a direct challenge from Tehran. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf wrote on X that 'no negotiations have been held with the US,' accusing Washington of spreading 'fake news to manipulate the financial and oil markets.'

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said friendly countries had relayed Washington's 'request for negotiations', but that no direct dialogue had occurred.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-linked Fars News Agency went further. Citing an unnamed source, it reported 'there has been no direct or indirect contact with Trump.' The source claimed Trump 'backed down' after Iran warned it would target power plants across West Asia.

What Trump Actually Said

Trump wrote in an all-caps Truth Social post that the US and Iran had held 'in-depth, detailed, and constructive conversations' over two days. He told CNBC he was 'very intent on making a deal' and claimed the two sides had agreed on 15 points, though he named only one — that Iran had agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons.

Speaking to reporters in Florida, Trump said US envoys had been talking to a 'respected' Iranian leader, not Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. He declined to name the individual, saying he didn't want to 'get him killed'. Axios reported that envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner had been in contact with Ghalibaf through intermediaries, with Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan passing messages.

Oil Prices Dropped, But Pump Prices Haven't

Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) both dropped more than 14% at their lows on Monday before paring losses. WTI settled at $88.13 (£67.72) per barrel. Even with the drop, crude remains roughly a third higher than before the US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on 28 February.

US petrol prices have risen for 23 straight days, reaching $3.96 (£2.95) per gallon, according to AAA, up $1.02 (£0.76) in one month and the steepest rise since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Goldman Sachs raised its US recession probability to 30%, up from 25% the week before, warning that energy-driven inflation will add roughly 1% to global headline prices.

Five Days to Prove It or Lose It

The contradiction between Trump's claim and Tehran's denial is the central risk for investors and households. If the five-day window produces verifiable progress, Monday's rally could mark the start of de-escalation. If it doesn't, the market gains are borrowed, and oil could snap back.

'Otherwise, we'll just keep bombing our little hearts out,' Trump told reporters. The International Energy Agency warned the crisis was worse than the combined oil shocks of 1973 and 1979, with its head Fatih Birol calling it a 'major, major threat' to the global economy.

Five days. That's how long the world has to find out whether Trump's 'productive talks' are real, or whether Monday's relief rally was built on a headline Tehran says never happened.