'Embarrassed' Trump Might Order a Nuclear Strike on Iran With an Unpredictable 'Radiation Bloom'

President Donald Trump could face pressure to consider a nuclear strike against Iran's deeply buried Pickaxe Mountain facility, according to University of Chicago professor Robert Pape, who has warned that the consequences of such an attack could extend well beyond the target itself.

Pape made the comments in a 21 September episode of the podcast At the Water's Edge, in which he discussed the possibility of a tactical nuclear strike against Pickaxe Mountain and the potential military, economic and political fallout that could follow. The episode notes confirm that Pape discussed whether the US or Israel could use a tactical nuclear weapon against the facility.

His comments describe a hypothetical scenario rather than a confirmed US plan to use a nuclear weapon.

Pickaxe Mountain, also known as Kūh-e Kolang Gaz La, is a deeply buried facility in Iran that has drawn growing scrutiny in recent months. Satellite imagery analysed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) showed a marked increase in construction activity at the site through 2026.

Crucially, CSIS said its imagery could neither confirm nor refute an Israeli intelligence claim that Iran had moved uranium centrifuges and centrifuge parts into the facility in autumn 2025. It also said the activity it observed did not establish that the site was yet capable of enrichment work.

The conflict began on 28 February, when the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran. President Trump said on social media that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been killed in the strikes and described his death as 'the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their Country'.

Seven months into the conflict, the war remains unresolved. Fighting, threats and diplomatic manoeuvring between Washington and Tehran are continuing, with neither side having reached a lasting settlement.

Why a Nuclear Strike on Iran Is Being Discussed

Pape argues that Pickaxe Mountain presents a particularly difficult military problem because of its depth and geology. In his 21 September analysis, he discussed whether conventional weapons could reach the facility, which CSIS has described as a deeply buried granite fortification that would be difficult to destroy even with the heaviest non-nuclear US munitions.

He has estimated that multiple strikes would be needed to penetrate the site, though that specific figure is his own calculation rather than an independently verified technical assessment.

The United States has previously used its largest bunker-busting weapon, the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), against Iranian nuclear facilities. During Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025, seven B-2 bombers dropped 14 GBU-57s on targets at Fordow and Natanz. Pickaxe Mountain was not among the facilities struck.

Pape has said that the difficulty of reaching Pickaxe Mountain with conventional weapons could be contributing to discussion in Washington of a tactical nuclear option. He said rumours were circulating in Washington that the administration, under Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, was considering such an option, while acknowledging he could not establish whether those rumours reflected actual Pentagon planning or simply Beltway chatter.

No US president has authorised the combat use of a nuclear weapon since 1945.

The scenario Pape discussed involves a hypothetical weapon with a yield of roughly five to 10 kilotons. For comparison, the bomb dropped on Hiroshima is generally estimated to have had a yield of about 13 to 15 kilotons, depending on the source.

What Could Happen After a Strike

Pape's central concern is the potential spread of radioactive material following any strike on a deeply buried facility. He has argued that fallout could spread beyond the immediate target and used the phrase 'radiation bloom' when discussing the potential consequences.

He estimated that between 50,000 and 100,000 people in nearby towns and villages could be exposed. That figure is Pape's own estimate, not an independently verified projection.

The actual effects of any hypothetical strike would depend on the weapon used, the depth and geology of the detonation point, the material present at the site, weather conditions and the resulting contamination pattern.

Pape warned that a strike could produce both immediate deaths and longer-term radiation-related health effects among exposed populations. He also warned that a nuclear strike could leave the United States 'quickly labelled a global pariah', followed by economic damage and a rise in attacks on US targets abroad. 'This danger of Iran's revenge, this is not a short-term thing,' he said. 'We are going to be on pins and needles for years.'

The Political Trigger

Pape has also linked his assessment to a possible political flashpoint ahead of the US midterm elections. He has pointed to Iran's actions in the conflict as a contributor to higher US fuel prices, which he said was creating political difficulties for the Trump administration heading into the midterms.

He has further raised the possibility that Iran could withdraw from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) next month. Pape frames such a withdrawal as a possible warning sign of escalating nuclear ambitions, though withdrawal alone would not establish that Iran was preparing to test a weapon.

Any withdrawal would also sit in tension with Trump's June statement, made on Truth Social, that Iran had agreed never to have a nuclear weapon.

For now, the nuclear-strike scenario remains hypothetical. Pape's analysis describes one possible escalation path in an unresolved conflict; it is not evidence that Trump has decided to use, or is about to use, a nuclear weapon against Iran.