JD Vance Iran war, Trump midterms, Don Jr Vance
Eight months into the fighting, 23 American service members are dead and 865 wounded, according to official Pentagon figures The White House public domain

JD Vance has blamed the Iran war for the Republican midterm election rout. 'The reason we lost is the war,' the vice president wrote on X on Wednesday 4 November. Donald Trump Jr, the president's eldest son, re-posted the message with three '💯' emojis.

Later that day, Trump called Vance's verdict 'largely true' but insisted that, given the chance, he would go to war again. Democrats won control of both chambers overnight. Trump said on 2 March that the US initially projected a four-to-five-week operation. The Pentagon's tally lists 23 US service members dead during operations related to the war, including 12 non-combat deaths, and 865 wounded.

What JD Vance Said

Turnout was not the main problem, Vance wrote. Many of the voters who chose Trump and Vance in 2024 had switched to Democrats. A pollster had asked those voters what would win them back. Their top four answers were ending the war, the cost of living, putting America first and changing the US relationship with Israel. Vance challenged anyone who thought the war was worth losing the Senate for six years to say so openly. His full message is below.

The party's economic message had probably not been sharp enough in the final weeks, he added. Vance led US talks with Iran in April, but they ended without an agreement. Reports said he opposed the war before it began on 28 February, but The Daily Beast described those claims as a spin campaign driven by anonymous sources. He also declined to back Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu before Israel's election last month.

How Donald Trump Responded

Trump took questions at the White House after signing the final steel beam of his new ballroom. 'I think it's largely true because it drove the gasoline up a little bit short term,' he said of Vance's message. He had known the war would hurt Republicans, he said, and would have done nothing differently. The US could not let Iran get a nuclear weapon, he argued. Trump also publicly ruled out firing Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth.

Asked about past claims that the war would end straight after the midterms, Trump denied ever making them, though he had. The war would end whenever he wanted it to, he said. In Israel, President Isaac Herzog said Vance's views were 'in the air' in the US. Israel had always tried to stay bipartisan, he added. Iranian officials hailed the result, with parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf saying Americans had voted 'NO TO WAR'.

Read more

What It Means for 2028

Vance has not said whether he will run for president in 2028, but is widely seen as a frontrunner. AFP saw the message as Vance distancing himself from the war. Even Fox News host Sean Hannity said the results would '100 percent' have been different without it.

'Honestly, there's just one person to blame,' Arizona Republican strategist Barrett Marson told CNN. CBS News estimates Democrats will hold at least 54 Senate seats and 251 to 268 House seats. US Central Command estimates the war cost at least $47.1 billion (about £35 billion) by mid-October.

Writer's Pick
Donald Trump