152 Wallets on Trump Jr.-Linked Polymarket Made $8M Betting on US Military Moves With 97% Win Rate

More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have used non-public US military information to win about $8 million (£5.86 million) on defence-related wagers, according to a new report that is intensifying scrutiny of prediction markets. The Anti-Corruption Data Collective found 152 wallets on Polymarket International that made unusually successful bets on military and defence markets.

Moreover, the wallets collectively earned about $8 million and had an average win rate of 97.2%, a figure researchers said was striking enough to raise questions about possible access to sensitive information. The group described the accounts as 'Orcas', a reference to traders that appeared to move with sharp precision in niche markets where insiders may have an advantage.

While the findings do not prove insider trading, the researchers acknowledged that luck or other explanations are possible, and that not every suspicious trader would fit their 'Orca' pattern. However, the report argues that the wallets are among those most likely to have profited from military secrets.

Bets Appeared Before US Military Actions

Researchers said some of the suspicious trades appeared shortly before US military operations, including strikes involving Iran. In one example cited in the report, an Orca allegedly bet on US military action in Iran hours before June 2025 strikes. Larger traders and automated bots then appeared to copy the wager, including bets worth $200,000 and $100,000 (£146,000 and £73,000).

Similar patterns reportedly appeared before February US-Israeli strikes on Tehran, when first-time long-shot bets were placed by bots and large traders after earlier Orca activity. That copycat behaviour is central to the national security concern. Because Polymarket wagers are visible on the blockchain, unusual betting activity can be watched in real time by anyone, including rival traders, journalists and potentially foreign intelligence services.

'It's All Right There on the Internet'

David Szakonyi, co-founder of the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, warned that people underestimate how visible the market really is.

'Most people vastly underestimate how observable unusual betting activity actually is on Polymarket,' he said. 'It's all right there on the internet.'

He added that it would be 'naive' to think foreign intelligence agencies were not monitoring these markets. Polymarket has said its public ledger allows greater scrutiny and that it monitors suspicious activity. The company has also said it has referred dozens of trader wallets to authorities, including in a separate case involving alleged betting on the removal of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.

Trump Family Links Draw Attention

The report has drawn added attention because Donald Trump Jr. is an adviser to Polymarket, and his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, invested in the platform after it was founded. The Trump family's broader defence industry ties have also come under renewed scrutiny.

Donald Trump Jr. sits on the board of drone parts start-up Unusual Machines, while Eric Trump has reportedly invested in defence-linked firms including Xtend and Space-Eyes. Another Trump-backed company, Powerus, has received Air Force contracts for interceptor drones.

Those links do not establish wrongdoing in the Polymarket trades, but they deepen concerns about conflicts of interest as war, defence contracting and prediction markets increasingly overlap.

Calls Grow for Tougher Rules

The report comes as lawmakers debate how to regulate political and geopolitical betting. The White House reportedly warned officials in March that they cannot use non-public government information to place wagers. US senators have since barred themselves from insider trading on prediction markets, while a House ban is being considered.

Rep. Ritchie Torres has argued that the current system cannot stand, saying there is 'no justification' for officials betting on their own decisions. The Anti-Corruption Data Collective is calling for identity verification, withheld payouts on suspicious trades and bans on markets where non-public government information could be especially profitable.

Iranian-linked sources have separately alleged a pattern of oil market manipulation tied to US war announcements, though those claims remain disputed.