Why Trump Flew to Corinth: Mississippi Senate Poll Has Hyde-Smith Just Three Points Ahead of Scott Colom

Donald Trump flew to Corinth, Mississippi, on Monday, 26 October, to rally for Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith. Days earlier, a poll had her just three points ahead of Democrat Scott Colom. Trump said she was doing great, then added, 'I can't take a chance,' warning that voters stay home when a candidate looks safe.

That lead is within the 3.5-point margin of error, in a state Trump won by roughly 23 points in 2024. No Democrat has won a Senate seat there since 1982. The survey came from a Democratic firm, and most other measures still favour Hyde-Smith before the 3 November vote.

What the Mississippi Senate Poll Shows

Change Research carried out the survey for the 365 Project on 21 and 22 October. It put Hyde-Smith on 43 per cent and Colom on 40 per cent. Ty Pinkins, the Democratic Senate nominee in 2024 who now runs as an independent, took 6 per cent. Most public polls in the race have come from firms aligned with Democrats, though Wedgewood Polls found Hyde-Smith leading 52 per cent to 48 per cent in a survey conducted on 12–14 October. Poliwave's average of two recent polls gives Hyde-Smith a 3.3-point lead.

Other trackers give the senator a wider cushion. The Pollsmax average had her about seven points clear, with a 93 per cent win chance, and Kalshi, a prediction market, priced her chances near 89 per cent. Poliwave's wider forecast has her 6.8 points ahead and rates the race Likely Republican. Last week the Cook Political Report shifted its rating from Solid to Likely Republican, while Inside Elections still rates it Solid Republican.

Why Republicans Are Paying Attention

Trump's standing in Mississippi has weakened. The Civiqs tracker of registered voters put his approval there at 41 per cent and his disapproval at 52 per cent on 21 October, his weakest reading in the state in either term. In 2020, Hyde-Smith won by 10 points while Trump's winning margin topped 16. Trump also held two rallies for her before her 2018 runoff against Democrat Mike Espy, which she won.

Colom, a district attorney based in Columbus, gained traction after an ad attacking Hyde-Smith over beef prices went viral. If he wins, he would be Mississippi's first Black US senator since Reconstruction. National Democrats have backed him, with Kamala Harris holding a rally for Colom in Columbus on Thursday. Senate Majority PAC, a Democratic group, announced a $1.2 million (£900,000) advertising campaign. Former president Barack Obama has also endorsed him.

What Each Campaign Says About the Visit

Colom said Hyde-Smith was scared of questions about healthcare cuts, farmers and the Epstein files, and dared the president to debate him. Hyde-Smith's campaign manager, Jake Monssen, said she gladly accepted Trump's offer to boost turnout and that voters deserved to hear directly from the president, whose explanation is in the clip below.

Republican strategist Hayes Dent said the visit would probably cost Hyde-Smith three or four points but would not change the outcome. Henry Barbour, a Republican National Committee member, said a big turnout would favour Hyde-Smith. Colom's team has the resources and momentum to win, his campaign manager, Gerard Henderson, told the Associated Press.