'The Only Way She Can Lose Is if They Cheat': Trump Warns of Fraud as Minnesota Senate Race Tightens

US President Donald Trump claimed on Monday, 26 October, that Republican Michele Tafoya could lose Minnesota's Senate election only if opponents cheated.

His Truth Social warning came eight days before the 3 November midterms, as polling showed a competitive contest between Tafoya and Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan. Trump provided no evidence of planned ballot manipulation.

Tafoya, a former NFL broadcaster, is challenging Flanagan for the seat being vacated by Democratic Senator Tina Smith, who is not seeking re-election.

Recent polling has suggested a competitive race in a state historically favourable to Democrats.

Smith has accused Trump of laying the groundwork to undermine the result if Tafoya loses. Her criticism represents a political accusation, not evidence of an organised effort to overturn the election.

Trump's Minnesota Senate Race Warning Targets Ballot Counting

Trump wrote on Truth Social, 'The only way she can lose is if they cheat by playing games with the Ballots as they come in.'

He urged supporters not to allow interference with votes after election day, without identifying who he believed might interfere. Trump added, 'The Federal Government will be watching closely.'

The president did not identify any suspected wrongdoing or provide evidence of planned interference. His statement also did not establish that federal authorities had launched a specific operation to monitor Minnesota's ballot counting.

Trump encouraged Minnesotans to support Tafoya and repeated his 'Complete and Total Endorsement' of the Republican candidate. He had previously endorsed her on 12 October, despite her efforts to distinguish herself from his political positions.

Tafoya has presented herself as an independent Republican willing to challenge the president when necessary, despite receiving his endorsement. Flanagan's campaign has argued that electing Tafoya would give Trump a dependable ally in Washington.

The latest warning places Trump's claims about election integrity at the centre of a Senate contest in which he is not a candidate.

Minnesota Senate Race Revives Trump's Disputed Victory Claims

Trump also used his post to challenge the official results of Minnesota's previous presidential elections, claiming he had been denied victories in the state.

'I won Minnesota three times, but they didn't give me the Victories,' he wrote, before referring to Republican Richard Nixon's presidential victory there in 1972.

However, official election records contradict Trump's assertion. Hillary Clinton defeated him in Minnesota in 2016, Joe Biden won the state in 2020, and Kamala Harris carried it in 2024.

Minnesota has not supported a Republican presidential candidate since Nixon, making Trump's claim of three victories inconsistent with the state's certified results.

Trump presented his disputed account of those elections alongside his warning about the upcoming Senate vote. However, the results of previous elections provide no evidence that ballots will be manipulated in November.

In a statement posted on X, Smith accused Trump of laying the groundwork to steal the election if his preferred candidate fails to win. Her criticism reflected concern about the president's willingness to accept an unfavourable result, rather than proof of an existing scheme.

Trump's post provided no evidence that either campaign was manipulating the election. Under Minnesota's absentee ballot procedures, accepted ballots may be inserted into counting machines starting 18 days before election day.

However, no vote totals are produced until polling places close at 8pm on 3 November. The state's established procedures distinguish lawful early ballot processing from the unsupported allegations raised by Trump.

Tight Minnesota Senate Race Challenges a Democratic Stronghold

Minnesota has not elected a Republican to the US Senate since Norm Coleman won in 2002. That history initially made the open seat appear relatively secure for Democrats, although recent polling has suggested a closer contest.

A Minnesota Star Tribune poll, conducted from 5 to 7 October among 800 likely voters, showed Flanagan leading Tafoya by four percentage points, 47 per cent to 43 per cent.

The survey carried a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Its findings indicated a competitive race but did not establish who would ultimately win.

On 20 October, the Cook Political Report changed Minnesota's Senate rating from 'Likely Democrat' to 'Lean Democrat', acknowledging improved Republican competitiveness without predicting a Tafoya victory.

Tafoya has criticised the handling of fraud involving Minnesota's publicly funded programmes under Democratic Governor Tim Walz's administration. Flanagan, who serves as lieutenant governor, has faced political scrutiny over the administration's response.

Those cases are separate from Trump's unsupported suggestion that ballots could be manipulated in the Senate election. They do not establish that Flanagan personally participated in criminal wrongdoing or that either campaign is involved in electoral fraud.

Flanagan has challenged Tafoya over her relationship with Trump, while the Republican candidate has sought to appeal to voters beyond the president's political base.

With the election scheduled for Tuesday, 3 November, both candidates face a competitive final week. Trump's warning adds another contentious issue to the race, although his allegations remain unsupported by evidence.