Who Will Lead Iran After Khamenei? And What Each Candidate Means for the World

The death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has thrown Iran into acute political uncertainty, with exiled opposition leaders and regime loyalists already manoeuvring to shape what comes next. Global powers are watching closely as Iran's next ruler will inherit a country grappling with internal unrest and the aftermath of the US-Israeli strikes of 28 February.

Whoever emerges will determine Iran's domestic direction, the future of its nuclear programme and its approach to conflicts across the Middle East. The contest for succession is unfolding at one of the most dangerous moments in the country's recent history, with consequences that extend well beyond its borders.

Why Exiled Leaders Are Fighting Over Iran's Future

Maryam Rajavi, president-elect of the Paris-based National Council of Resistance of Iran, is calling for an end to the clerical regime and a transition to a democratic republic. 'Our homeland continues to endure greater pain and destruction under the rule of religious fascism,' she said, pointing to a ten-point plan advocating gender equality, a non-nuclear state and the separation of religion from governance. 'Now is the time for solidarity,' she added, dismissing any return to monarchy and stating that citizens 'reject both the Shah and the mullahs.'

That last point was a direct challenge to exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi, who has framed the recent US military action as a 'humanitarian intervention' targeted at the regime. Taking to social media, he declared: 'The final victory will still be achieved by us,' urging Iranians to return to the streets and calling on President Donald Trump to exercise 'the utmost possible caution' to protect civilians. Iranians, he said, 'will not forget your assistance during the most difficult period of Iran's contemporary history.'

How Regime Hardliners and the IRGC Are Orchestrating a Power Grab

While opposition figures rally supporters abroad, entrenched operatives are manoeuvring to maintain their grip on power. Intelligence assessments warn that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could move swiftly to consolidate control and prevent systemic collapse.

Both Rajavi and Pahlavi have appealed directly to the military, with Pahlavi warning security personnel they would 'sink with Khamenei's ship' if they continued defending the regime rather than choosing to 'protect Iran and the Iranian nation.'

Before his death, Khamenei declined to name a successor publicly, leaving his 56-year-old son Mojtaba Khamenei as a prominent contender. Observers regard him as an uncompromising figure who would maintain hardline policies, though the US Treasury Department recently identified him as responsible for moving $1.5 billion (£1.11 billion) out of the country, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accusing the leadership of 'abandoning ship.'

The Rise of Conciliatory Candidates Amid Escalating Global Pressure

As hardliners prepare to defend their position, a moderate faction is coalescing around Hassan Khomeini, 53, grandson of revolutionary founder Ruhollah Khomeini. He carries significant symbolic weight while representing a more conciliatory option in the eyes of the international community.

The US and Israel have publicly encouraged Iranians to capitalise on the regime's vulnerability. 'Our joint action will create the conditions for the brave Iranian people to take their destiny into their own hands,' Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, echoing Trump's call for Iranians to take over their government. Whether that opening translates into a stable transition, or deepens the instability already taking hold in Tehran, remains the central question facing Iran and the watching world.