Timothée Chalamet's 52% Chance Could End Leonardo DiCaprio's 2nd Oscar Dream—Here's Why

The award season temperatures rose sharply after new forecasts placed Timothée Chalamet ahead of Leonardo DiCaprio in early 2026 Oscar projections.

Kalshi's prediction market now gives Chalamet a commanding 52% chance of claiming Best Actor for his work as table tennis icon Marty Reisman in 'Marty Supreme'.

Private industry screenings in London, New York, and Los Angeles helped build momentum, as critics praised his transformation and steady performance.

Rising confidence in Chalamet sparked immediate concern in DiCaprio's camp, as Hollywood watchers believed he was close to securing a long-awaited second acting win.

Awards races often shift once late-year releases expand, so this early lead may either hold or collapse depending on public response and critic chatter.

Historic voting patterns show sudden swings once larger audiences weigh in, which leaves every contender fighting for space in an unpredictable field.

Other Competitors For The Best Actor Oscar Award

Timothée Chalamet enters this awards season with strong buzz but faces an unusually crowded field of rivals.

Daniel Day-Lewis returned with new work that impressed viewers at multiple festival stops, which placed him back on prediction lists.

Should 'Marty Supreme' maintain its current standing, Chalamet would gain a third Best Actor nomination. However, that achievement alone may not guarantee victory.

Leonardo DiCaprio, Denzel Washington, and Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson also remain powerful names with heavy studio support and long records of box office success.

Younger stars have also pushed forward. Jeremy Allen White drew praise for his portrayal of Bruce Springsteen in 'Deliver Me From Nowhere' while Paul Mescal gained attention for his turn as Shakespeare in 'Hamnet'. Willem Dafoe, Oscar Isaac, Colin Farrell, Ethan Hawke, Matthew McConaughey, Miles Teller, Brad Pitt, and George Clooney added further noise after well-received previews.

This broad list leaves Chalamet navigating tough ground. He must preserve current attention through interviews, press events, late screenings, and critic polls.

Industry analysts say momentum helps, yet sustained visibility often decides outcomes. With several major actors in contention, he must convince voters that his portrayal of Marty Reisman stands above a field stacked with Hollywood names.

DiCaprio's Advantage To Win the Oscar

Leonardo DiCaprio enters this season with powerful advantages built through decades of acclaimed work. His collaboration with director Paul Thomas Anderson in 'One Battle After Another' lent weight, as Anderson's films often resonate strongly with voters.

Released on 26 September 2025, the film follows a resistance member who attempts to save his daughter amid political turmoil.

Promotional material suggested a mixture of drama with subtle comedic beats, which reminded many viewers of his tone in 'Don't Look Up' and 'Once Upon a Time in Hollywood'.

Anderson's involvement raised expectations because previous DiCaprio projects such as 'Don't Look Up' and 'Killers of the Flower Moon' received praise in top categories yet failed to deliver acting trophies.

Fans believe this year could finally resolve that gap. DiCaprio last held an Oscar in 2016 for 'The Revenant' which left nearly a decade without another acting win.

Still, analysts warn that no firm favourite has emerged. Chalamet currently leads prediction markets while DiCaprio holds industry goodwill and long-term respect. Both films sit at key stages of public rollout.

'One Battle After Another' is already screening nationwide, giving DiCaprio early exposure. 'Marty Supreme' opens on 25 December 2025, which means his performance could spark fresh momentum once holiday audiences arrive.

Every shift matters as campaigns intensify. Chalamet's rise could signal a significant changing moment for younger stars, while DiCaprio's presence ensures heavyweight pressure during the final vote.

Awards watchers expect a tense race that may surprise voters right up until ballots close.