'Every Amazon Worker, UPS, Gone, FedEx, Gone': Jason Calacanis Warns AI Could Put 2.5 Million Jobs at Risk

Roughly 2.5 million jobs at Amazon, UPS and FedEx could vanish before the end of the decade if venture capitalist Jason Calacanis is right about the pace of AI-driven automation in logistics.

Calacanis, an early Uber backer and co-host of the All-In Podcast, laid out the prediction on The Bulwark Podcast with host Tim Miller. 'Before 2030, you're going to see Amazon, which has massively invested in [AI], replace all factory workers and all drivers,' he said.

'It will be 100% robotic, which means all of those workers are going away. Every Amazon worker, all those jobs. UPS, gone. FedEx, gone.'

The remark first went viral on X in September 2025. His friend Elon Musk weighed in with a flat endorsement. 'AI and robots will replace all jobs,' Musk wrote in reply, Benzinga noted.

2.5 Million Workers in the Crosshairs of AI Automation

The numbers behind Calacanis's claim are considerable. Amazon reported 1.576 million full and part-time employees at the end of 2025 in its SEC filings, with about 65% of that workforce — roughly 1.025 million people — in fulfilment and warehouse roles. UPS listed approximately 460,000 staff in the same period. FedEx reported around 440,000 employees in its latest annual report to the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

All three firms are already moving in the direction Calacanis describes. Amazon has invested heavily in warehouse robotics. UPS shed 30,000 jobs in 2025 as part of a network restructuring partly driven by automation. FedEx has similarly poured resources into AI-powered sorting and route optimisation.

Calacanis broke down the math on the podcast. 'Every self-driving car is four full-time jobs,' he said. 'Every humanoid robot in a factory is five jobs, maybe six.' He compared the speed of the transition to the Industrial Revolution, which unfolded over 40 to 50 years. 'This one will happen in a decade,' he said. 'You should be concerned.'

He doubled down on X. 'In 2035 this will not be a controversial take,' he wrote. 'Hard, soul-crushing labor is going away over the next decade. We will be deep in that transition in 2030, when humanoid robots are as common as bicycles.'

Beyond warehouses, Calacanis predicted AI would double worker productivity every two years, thinning professional ranks as well. 'You just need less lawyers at your company. You need less accountants,' he told Miller.

The Uber Backer Now Betting on AI's Next Wave

Calacanis is not a detached commentator. The Brooklyn-born entrepreneur, whose net worth is estimated at £47 million ($60 million) by Celebrity Net Worth — with some estimates running considerably higher — built his reputation on a £20,000 ($25,000) angel bet on Uber in 2009 that ballooned into an estimated nine-figure return when the ride-hailing company went public a decade later. He has since backed over 300 startups, including Robinhood, Thumbtack and Calm.

He is also practising what he preaches. In January 2026, Calacanis told the CES conference in Las Vegas that Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot would prove more significant than the carmaker's vehicles. At his own podcast network, he has been replacing routine production work with AI agents he calls 'replicants' — bots trained to handle research, guest scheduling and reporting.

On the All-In Podcast in late 2025, he argued against Senator Bernie Sanders's call for a moratorium on new AI data centres, saying the tech industry had failed to communicate the benefits clearly enough. He acknowledged the displacement risk but insisted the gains would ultimately outweigh the cost, particularly through personalised AI tutoring.

'The ability to learn anything quickly in an adaptive way is going to change education forever in a very good way if the tools are used well,' he said.

Miller, however, pressed Calacanis on how ordinary people would tell the truth from AI-generated disinformation. Calacanis granted the point, warning that AI systems are becoming 'sycophantic' and built to confirm users' existing beliefs rather than challenge them.

His bottom line, though, did not budge. 'The idea that when you order something from Amazon, a human would touch it at any point in that supply chain is insane,' he said.