Andy Burnham as mayor of Manchester
Polls show Burnham leading with 80% of Labour members' support and favored to beat Starmer. Reuters

The upcoming by-election in Makerfield was triggered after the incumbent Labour MP, Josh Simons, was appointed Steward and Bailiff of the Three Hundreds of Chiltern, vacating his parliamentary seat.

As reported by the BBC, Simons enthusiastically endorsed Burnham, stating that giving him the chance to challenge Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer for Labour leadership was 'too big an opportunity to miss.'

Burnham's Ascension Through the Ranks

Burnham's political journey began in 2001 when he was elected as the Member of Parliament for the constituency of Leigh.

During this time, he built a hard-earned reputation for being a man of principle. This, combined with his northern, working-class background, saw his popularity increase within the party, and he went on to hold numerous prominent positions under both Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.

Most notably, Burnham served as Secretary of State for Health from 2009 to 2010. His achievements during this time included the passing of the Personal Care at Home Act 2010, which guaranteed free personal at-home care for the most vulnerable in the country.

Failed Leadership Bids and Lessons

Burnham has already ran for the Labour leadership in 2010 and 2015, and both attempts ended in failure. While he finished fourth in 2010, he lost out again in 2015, this time to Jeremy Corbyn. This defeat was especially painful as he was the initial frontrunner when voting began.

However, these defeats made him realise that Labour had to reconnect with working-class communities outside of London, who felt left behind by the direction the party had travelled in. Indeed, Burnham's genuine conviction in helping the working class saw him become the mayor of Greater Manchester in 2017, a position he has held ever since.

During this time, he has achieved notable successes, such as his 'A Bed Every Night' homelessness programme, and showcased his ability to project calm authority under pressure.

To be able to lead the Labour Party, however, he needs to become an MP again.

A 'David versus Goliath' Battle

The constituency of Makerfield may have been represented by Labour MPs since its creation back in 1983, but Burnham's path back to Westminster is far from straightforward.

Reform UK came second under Robert Kenyon in Makerfield during the 2024 General Election, securing 31.8% of the vote, and the party is also riding a wave of momentum following their resounding success in May's local elections.

In Makerfield alone, the party won all eight council wards, and Kenyon has built his platform around the argument that mainstream parties have failed working-class communities, citing ongoing issues concerning immigration, increased pressure on the NHS, and cost-of-living concerns.

Reform UK has confirmed that Kenyon will contest the seat once again, and they are bullish about their chances of success.

In a post on Facebook announcing his candidacy, the party said 'Makerfield was Andy Burnham's back up plan. For Robert Kenyon, it's his home. This battle will be David Vs Goliath.'

Labour Infighting

Although, according to The Guardian, Burnham is expected to move quickly to challenge Kier Starmer for Labour leadership, he is not the only contender. If elected to Parliament, he will face a challenge from former Health Secretary Wes Streeting.

Streeting's allies say he has surprises that will be revealed during any leadership contest, as reported by Independent.

Burnham has reassured local voters in the heavily Leave-supporting constituency that he does not intend to push for the UK to rejoin the EU. However, this contrasts with his previous statement that he hopes to see the UK rejoin in his lifetime, as reported in Express.

Early signs favor Burnham in a potential contest with Streeting, with a YouGov poll showing 80% of Labour members backing him, compared to 10% for Streeting. The same poll predicts Burnham would win against Starmer, with 59% versus 37%.

The Makerfield by-election is scheduled for 18 June.