Analyst Gives Democrats 92% Chance of Winning House, 71% of Taking Senate: 'I Never Thought I'd See the Day'

Democrats have a 92% chance of winning the House of Representatives and a 71% probability of taking the Senate in Tuesday's midterm elections, according to CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten's final forecast. His projections suggest Republicans could lose control of both chambers of Congress, with Democrats also gaining ground in governors' races.

Enten presented his final forecast ahead of the 3 November vote, drawing on nonpartisan race ratings, polling averages, primary turnout, and prediction market data. 'I never thought I'd see the day early on in this campaign where Democrats would have a 71% chance of winning back the United States Senate. I mean, that is a huge chance, but it's still not 100%,' he added.

Democrats Eye a Commanding House Majority

In his final midterm election forecast, aired on CNN on 30 October, Enten projected Democrats winning 237 House seats to Republicans' 198, comfortably exceeding the 218 needed for a majority. The forecast reflects a widening Democratic advantage in national generic ballot polling. The party now leads Republicans by nine percentage points, compared with five points a year ago and six over the summer.

Despite Republican-led redistricting making some districts harder to flip, Enten estimates Democrats need roughly a four-point national popular vote advantage to regain control of the chamber. 'I've looked at thousands, no, hundreds of thousands of data points, thousands of polls to understand which way the tides are shaking,' he said.

Senate Forecast Raises Republican Alarm

The Senate outlook is more uncertain, but Enten's model still gives Democrats a 71% probability of securing control, compared with Republicans' 29%. His projected outcome is 52 Democratic-held seats to 48 Republican-held seats, a result that would hand Democrats control of both chambers.

Several traditionally Republican states have become competitive battlegrounds in the 2026 Senate races, including Alaska, Ohio, Texas, Kansas, and Iowa. Trump carried all five states by double-digit margins in the 2024 presidential election.

However, Enten cautioned against treating polling advantages as guaranteed victories. He noted that Republican Senate candidates in those states outperformed their final polling averages by an average of 4.1 percentage points between 2018 and 2024, leaving room for another polling miss. 'We're talking probabilistically,' Enten said. 'It wouldn't surprise me if any of these seats went the other way.'

Other Forecasters Weigh In

Enten's projections broadly align with other prominent election analysts, although their estimates differ. In its 30 October assessment, the Cook Political Report outlined potential Democratic gains of 12 to 25 House seats, suggesting the party could secure a majority.

Sabato's Crystal Ball identified 225 House seats as at least leaning Democratic on 27 October, alongside 17 toss-ups. Decision Desk HQ, meanwhile, placed Democrats' probability of winning the House at 82%, according to The Hill.

Governors' Races Add Another Dimension to Election Forecasts

The Democratic momentum extends beyond Capitol Hill. Enten cited Kalshi prediction market data showing an 83% implied probability that Democrats would hold more US governorships than Republicans after the elections, up from 27% in March. He also pointed to dissatisfaction with the Trump administration and Congress as factors shaping the broader political environment.

Enten also highlighted congressional approval of just 14%, alongside polling indicating that 45% of respondents believed their own representative did not deserve re-election. Together, those figures suggest a difficult political environment for incumbents, particularly Republicans defending their congressional majorities.

Still, Enten's probabilities are forecasts rather than election results. With several Senate contests remaining competitive, Tuesday's vote will determine whether the projected Democratic wave materialises.