SpaceX Crashes to Record Low of $115: Stock Has Performed Worse Than 90% of Billion-Dollar IPOs Since 2009

SpaceX shares have fallen to a record low of about $115, capping a steep slide since the company's stock market debut in June. The drop has wiped more than $1 trillion from the value of what was, only weeks ago, the biggest listing in history.

The fall has been fast. SpaceX priced its shares at $135 and began trading on 12 June, opening well above that level. Four days later the stock reached a peak of $225.64. From there the direction has been almost entirely downwards, leaving it well below the price early buyers paid.

How Far the Shares Have Fallen

The scale of the reversal is unusual for such a large listing. The company raised about $75B, the most any firm has ever raised in a flotation, and briefly made Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire. Barely six weeks later, more than $1 trillion of market value has gone. The path is set out below.

Several things have weighed on the price. The company ran up losses of close to $5B over the past year. Its artificial intelligence arm, xAI, added another $6.4B of losses on top. Short sellers have piled in, betting the shares will keep sliding.

The company has also had a difficult few weeks in its core business. A test flight of its Starship rocket was called off shortly before launch when several engines failed to fire. A further worry sits in the calendar: a large block of shares held by early investors is due to become sellable after the next results, which could add more supply to a falling market.

The Case Made by the Bulls

Not everyone sees a company in trouble. Musk has publicly brushed off the slide. Replying to the entrepreneur Peter Diamandis on X, he suggested the company's eventual value could exceed that of the entire planet. It is a striking comparison, though it rests on goals he has not put a date on.

Cathie Wood, whose firm ARK Invest is one of the best known backers of Musk's companies, has been buying steadily as the price falls. Her funds picked up more than 620,000 shares in July alone, and she has described SpaceX as potentially the most important company in global history.

ARK's argument is that the market is valuing SpaceX as a rocket company when it is really a technology business. Its case rests on Starlink, the satellite internet service that provides most of the revenue, and on the idea of building data centres in orbit to run artificial intelligence. On ARK's most optimistic model, the company could be worth $3.1 trillion by 2030. The two views are set out below.

Most of Wall Street leans the same way. Of the 31 analysts covering the stock, 27 recommend buying it, and their average price target sits at $242, roughly double the current level. That is a wide gap between what the market is paying and what analysts think the shares are worth.

History offers some support for patience. Meta spent over a year stuck beneath the price at which it listed in 2012 and is now worth many times that level. Uber also languished for months after its 2019 debut before recovering.

What Investors Are Watching

The next significant test is the company's first set of results as a public firm, due on 4 August. Those figures will provide the first clear indication of whether the businesses behind the valuation are growing quickly enough to justify it.

That date also opens the way for the share lockup to expire, letting longtime holders sell for the first time. If enough of them take profits, the pressure on the price could continue. For now, the market is split between those who see an overpriced company running on promises and those who think a rare business is being sold off cheaply.

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