Trump's Nobel Peace Prize Dream on the Line: Who Decides the Winner and Can He Actually Win?

The Norwegian Nobel Committee will reveal the 2026 Peace Prize winner on 9 October, yet Donald Trump's influence is already being weighed by those watching the process.

Haakon Gjerløw, acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, says the committee may have to ask whether a potential laureate could withstand pressure from the US president, even though experts cited by Reuters say Trump's own chances of winning are very low.

Trump has long insisted he deserves the award, but he has no role in choosing the laureate. His political clout, however, may still form part of the backdrop as the committee makes its decision.

Trump's Nobel Problem

Trump has reportedly been nominated by the leaders of Cambodia, Israel and Pakistan. The Norwegian Nobel Committee does not confirm or deny individual nominations, so those claims cannot be independently verified.

Gjerløw says Trump's chances are 'quite low'. He also believes the committee could consider whether awarding the prize to someone might expose that person to pressure from Trump.

The issue became more prominent after last year's Nobel controversy involving María Corina Machado.

The Machado Medal Twist

Machado won the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for her work towards a peaceful democratic transition in Venezuela. In January 2026, she gave Trump her Nobel medal during a White House meeting, describing the gesture as recognition of his commitment to Venezuela's freedom.

Trump called it a 'wonderful gesture of mutual respect'. The Nobel Peace Prize itself did not change hands. Machado remains the 2025 laureate, while the physical medal can be given to someone else.

That episode now hangs over the 2026 race, particularly because Gjerløw says the committee may consider whether a prize could 'do more harm than good' if its recipient came under political pressure.

Who Decides the Nobel Peace Prize?

The decision belongs to the five-member Norwegian Nobel Committee, whose members are elected by Norway's Parliament, the Storting. The committee's current chair is Jørgen Watne Frydnes.

For 2026, the committee received 287 candidates, comprising 208 individuals and 79 organisations. There is no public shortlist. Under Nobel rules, nomination information and related assessments remain confidential for 50 years.

The committee discusses the nominations, creates a shortlist and seeks assessments from experts before reaching its decision. It aims for consensus, although a simple majority can decide the winner if consensus proves impossible.

A reported nomination is therefore not the same thing as an endorsement, and being named by a politician or other eligible nominator does not mean the committee has backed that candidate.

What Is the Committee Looking For?

Kristian Berg Harpviken, secretary of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, said on 6 October that the body is closely watching a world undergoing major geopolitical change.

Harpviken prepares the committee's dossiers and participates in its deliberations, although he does not vote. He said the committee is paying close attention to people and initiatives creating new forms of cooperation that fit the Peace Prize's goals.

Those goals stem from Alfred Nobel's will and include promoting international fellowship, reducing military forces and advancing peace initiatives.

Could Trump Still Win?

Technically, yes. Nothing publicly released by the Nobel Committee says Trump has been eliminated, and the committee will not reveal its shortlist before the announcement.

Expert assessment is far less encouraging for the president. Reuters reports that analysts consider his chances very low, while the secretive process means outsiders cannot know the committee's final choices.

Trump has previously voiced his frustration with the prize. During a February 2025 meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he said: 'They will never give me a Nobel Peace Prize. It's too bad. I deserve it, but they will never give it to me.'

The Carney Factor

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has also entered the Nobel conversation after confronting Trump over tariffs and arguing for greater cooperation among middle powers. AP reported that the discussion around Carney reflects his growing international profile, although there is no public evidence that he is on the committee's secret shortlist.

Other names and organisations discussed by experts include Pope Leo, the International Criminal Court, the International Court of Justice, Francesca Albanese, Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms and Save the Children. The International Space Station has also been mentioned as a symbol of international cooperation.

The Nobel Decision To Watch

The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize will be announced at 11am CEST on 9 October at the Norwegian Nobel Institute in Oslo.

Trump cannot vote on the winner, veto the decision, or control the committee. After the Machado medal episode and renewed discussion about political pressure, however, his presence has become part of the story.

He may not get the Nobel Peace Prize. The question is whether, even from outside the committee room, Trump could still cast a shadow over the person who does.