Are US Allies Losing Faith In Trump? New Poll Shows Growing Support For China Partnership

Only 16% of Europeans now consider the United States an ally, down from 22% in March 2025, while 45% view China as a necessary partner, according to a poll published by the European Council on Foreign Relations and Oxford University.

The survey covered 25,949 adults across 21 countries in November 2025, one year after Donald Trump won a second presidential term. It was conducted before the US intervention in Venezuela in January.

Twenty per cent of EU respondents now classify the US as a rival or adversary, up from 11% in March 2025. In France, Germany, and Spain, that figure approaches 30%. In Switzerland, it reached 39%.

China Partnership Support Rises In Key Regions

In South Africa, over a third of respondents called China an outright ally, compared with a fifth who said the same about the US. In September 2023, a majority of South Africans said they would side with Washington if forced to choose between the two powers. By late 2025, that position had reversed.

Trump's decision to bar South Africa from G20 meetings in 2026 was cited by ECFR as a contributing factor.

In India, approval of Trump's presidency dropped from 84% to 53% over the past year. In Brazil, roughly equal proportions of the population now view China and the US as allies.

Most respondents in nearly every country surveyed expected China to have greater global influence over the next decade. South Africa led at 83%, followed by Brazil at 72%, Turkey at 63% and the US itself at 54%. The UK had the lowest figure at 50%.

Western Leaders Visit Beijing In Early 2026

The poll results come as a string of Western leaders have visited Beijing since the start of the year.

UK Prime Minister Keir travelled to China in late January, the first British PM to do so since 2018, and secured roughly £1.7 billion ($2.2 billion) in export deals alongside £1.8 billion ($2.3 billion) in market access agreements. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visited mid-January, his country's first such trip in eight years. Ireland's Taoiseach Micheál Martin arrived on 4 January, the first Irish leader to visit in 14 years.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz followed in late February, accompanied by 30 executives from Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Siemens. Finnish PM Petteri Orpo, South Korean President Lee Jae-myun,g and French President Emmanuel Macron, who went in December 2025, also made the trip.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said at the Munich Security Conference in February that the visits showed China and Europe are 'partners, not rivals,' CFR reported.

ECFR Report Links Trump Foreign Policy To Shift

The report, authored by Timothy Garton Ash, Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, attributed the shift in part to Trump's foreign policy actions, including the US intervention in Venezuela, threats over Greenland, and pressure on NATO members. The authors said these moves had loosened the obligation countries felt to align with a US-led order.

ECFR Director Mark Leonard said the drop in European support for the US had been rapid across the continent and that other countries were starting to view the EU as an independent geopolitical actor.

The survey found that only 5% of Europeans consider China an ally outright. Concerns remain over Chinese industrial overcapacity, Beijing's relationship with Moscow and cheap imports affecting European manufacturers. Germany's trade deficit with China reached a record €90 billion (£76 billion/$96 billion) in 2025.

ECFR fellow Jana Puglierin said the transatlantic relationship is no longer held together by shared values and that Trump's transactional approach has prompted European publics to look elsewhere for partnerships.

EU-China bilateral trade reached €732 billion (£622 billion/$769 billion) in 2024, according to EU data, making China one of the bloc's largest trading partners. Trump is expected to visit Beijing in April.