Could Iran Close Hormuz? Experts Say It Is Not That Simple

The Strait of Hormuz is once again at the centre of global attention following reports of new US and Israeli strikes on Iran.

As tensions escalated, voices within Tehran hinted at the possibility of shutting the narrow shipping corridor.

It is a familiar warning.

Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the Strait. Yet it has never carried out a full blockade. While the rhetoric is serious, many analysts say turning that threat into reality would be far more complicated than it sounds.

Why the Strait Matters So Much

The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the wider world's oceans. It is the only sea route for several major oil exporters to ship energy supplies to global markets. Each day, an estimated 30 to 33 million barrels of oil equivalent pass through the corridor. That includes:

• Around one-fifth of the world's oil supply
• Roughly 30% of globally traded oil and petroleum products
• Nearly 20% of global liquefied natural gas, much of it from Qatar

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran depend heavily on the Strait for exports, while the United Arab Emirates also relies on it for a large share of shipments. Because of this concentration, even the perception of disruption can move global energy prices.

The Military Reality

Despite the Strait's strategic importance, a sustained closure would likely trigger an immediate military response. The United States maintains a strong naval presence in the region, including the Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain. Multiple combined task forces regularly patrol the Gulf and surrounding waters, supported by constant surveillance.

At times of heightened tensions, additional carrier strike groups may also operate in the region. Analysts say this reduces the chances of Iran achieving surprise.

Any prolonged blockade could expose Iran's own coastline and ports to overwhelming naval and air retaliation. That risk alone is seen as a major deterrent against a full shutdown. Most experts agree that Iran could temporarily disrupt traffic through harassment, seizures, or localised attacks. But sustaining a complete closure would be far more difficult.

The China Factor

Economic realities also complicate any shutdown scenario. Iran exports roughly 1.6 to 1.7 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate. The majority of those shipments — often estimated at around 90% — go to China.

China is the world's largest energy importer and a crucial buyer of sanctioned Iranian oil. A prolonged Strait closure would disrupt Iranian revenues and risk pressure from Beijing, which relies on steady energy flows. Beyond Iranian exports, a significant share of all energy shipments through Hormuz also head toward Asian markets, further raising the diplomatic stakes. In short, closing the Strait could hurt Iran financially as much as its rivals.

Pipeline Workarounds Reduce Impact

Another key factor: not all Gulf exports are trapped by Hormuz. Some major producers have alternative routes:

• Saudi Arabia can reroute up to about 5.1 million barrels per day via the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea.
• The UAE operates the Abu Dhabi–Fujairah pipeline, with a capacity of around 1.5 million barrels per day, allowing shipments to bypass the Strait entirely.

While these alternatives cannot replace total shipping capacity, they could soften the global impact of a disruption and reduce the leverage Iran might gain from a blockade.

Disruption vs Full Blockade

Analysts draw an important distinction between harassment and closure. Iran's naval forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have previously:

• Seized tankers
• Harassed shipping
• Conducted localised attacks

Such actions could raise insurance costs, slow traffic and spike oil prices without a formal blockade. A complete shutdown, however, would require sustained control over one of the world's most heavily monitored maritime chokepoints — something experts say would be extremely difficult to maintain.

A Threat That Persists — But Rarely Materialises

Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz over the past four decades, but has never fully followed through. Even in periods of intense confrontation, the risks of military retaliation, economic self-harm and international backlash have acted as strong constraints.

That does not mean tensions should be dismissed. Temporary disruptions, tanker seizures or limited skirmishes remain plausible and could still rattle energy markets. But based on current expert analysis, a prolonged and total closure of the Strait remains unlikely.