Trump's India 'Deal' Cuts Tariffs to 18% — But Modi Never Confirmed He'll Stop Buying Russian Oil

If you run a business importing goods from India or are tracking how Washington's trade war impacts global supply chains, Monday's announcement is significant. US President Donald Trump declared that tariffs on Indian imports would fall from a steep 50% to 18%, effective immediately.

The catch: Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not publicly confirmed the key promise Trump claims to have secured — that India will stop purchasing Russian oil.

Trump's Version of Events

Following a phone call with Modi, Trump posted on Truth Social that the Indian leader had 'agreed to stop buying Russian Oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela.'

Trump framed this alleged oil commitment as crucial to ending the Ukraine conflict. 'This will help END THE WAR in Ukraine, which is taking place right now, with thousands of people dying each and every week,' he wrote.

A White House official confirmed to Reuters that Washington would revoke the burdensome 25% duty imposed on Indian imports over Russian oil purchases, which had been added on top of a 25% reciprocal tariff since August 2025.

Trump also claimed Modi committed to purchasing over $500 billion (£365.65 billion) in US energy, technology, agricultural, and other products.

Modi's Conspicuous Silence

Modi's public response told a markedly different story.

'Wonderful to speak with my dear friend President Trump today. Delighted that Made in India products will now have a reduced tariff of 18%,' Modi wrote on X. 'Big thanks to President Trump on behalf of the 1.4 billion people of India for this wonderful announcement.'

Absent from his statement: any mention of Russian oil, tariff reductions on US goods, or the $500 billion (£365.65 billion) purchasing commitment.

Vina Nadjibulla, vice president of research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, flagged the discrepancy. 'Prime Minister Modi welcomed the news, but didn't reassert President Trump's claim that India was lowering tariffs on US goods,' she told Al Jazeera. 'It looks like, for now, a deal around tariffs and de-escalation of tariffs. It's still an important breakthrough.'

A Pattern That Should Concern Investors

This is not the first time Trump has announced Modi agreed to halt Russian crude purchases.

In October 2025, Trump told reporters that Modi had 'assured me today that they will not be buying oil from Russia.' However, India's foreign ministry responded by saying it was unaware of any such conversation. Despite this, Indian refiners continued purchasing Russian crude, with energy intelligence firm Kpler showing October flows at approximately 1.8 million barrels per day.

According to energy market intelligence firm Vortexa, by early November 2025, India's crude oil imports increased by 220,000 barrels per day, reaching 5 million barrels daily.

The timing of the current deal raises further questions. According to Reuters data cited by Al Jazeera, India has already begun reducing Russian oil imports independently. January purchases stood at around 1.2 million barrels per day, projected to decline to 1 million in February and 800,000 in March. India may be receiving credit for cuts already underway.

What This Means for Global Markets

The 18% tariff rate places Indian goods on a level comparable to Southeast Asian imports, according to Rachel Ziemba, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

Indian markets have been among the worst-performing among emerging economies in 2025, with record outflows of foreign investors, Al Jazeera reported. The deal comes just days after India signed a landmark free trade agreement with the European Union covering nearly all goods between the bloc's 27 members and New Delhi.

India relies heavily on imports for its energy needs — approximately 88.4% to 89%. Russian crude has helped keep energy costs manageable since Western sanctions imposed steep discounts following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. As recently as December 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin promised 'uninterrupted shipments' to India during a visit to New Delhi.

For investors and businesses, the key question remains: did Washington secure an enforceable commitment, or is this merely a diplomatic gesture? The answer largely depends on the words Modi has conspicuously avoided saying publicly.