'AI May Give Us Only a Few Years': Nobel Economists Warn AI Could Trigger Historic Economic Shift

More than 200 economists, AI researchers and technology leaders, including 16 Nobel laureates, have warned that artificial intelligence could trigger an economic upheaval larger than the Industrial Revolution and that governments may have only a narrow window to prepare.

The four-sentence statement, along with a press release published on Monday by Stanford University's Digital Economy Lab, argues that increasingly powerful AI could transform the global economy over a much shorter period than past technological shifts. That concern was echoed by economist Anton Korinek, one of the organisers, who warned that 'AI may give us only a few years' to adapt, unlike previous technological revolutions that unfolded over decades.

AI Could Transform the Economy Faster Than the Industrial Revolution

The statement opens with a warning that AI 'may become radically more powerful over the next 10 years' and could drive 'an unprecedented transformation of our economy, larger than the Industrial Revolution, but unfolding over a vastly shorter time frame'.

The signatories said such a transformation could deliver significant gains in productivity and living standards while also increasing the risk of large-scale job displacement.

'AI capabilities are advancing far faster than our understanding of the economic implications. In that gap lie the greatest opportunities of our era,' said Erik Brynjolfsson, the Jerry Yang and Akiko Yamazaki Professor at Stanford University and director of the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.

'We must act now to guide AI to complement humans rather than simply imitate them, and to generate prosperity for the many, not just the few,' he said.

'Waiting for Certainty Means Arriving Too Late'

Anton Korinek, a professor at the University of Virginia currently on leave at Anthropic, said previous technological revolutions gave societies decades to adapt, but AI could compress that timetable dramatically.

'Steam, electricity, and computers each gave societies decades to adapt; AI may give us only a few years,' he said, warning that 'waiting for certainty means arriving too late'.

Ajay Agrawal, a professor at the University of Toronto's Rotman School of Management, said AI's impact would depend on decisions made before the technology reaches its full potential.

'Whether rapidly advancing AI broadly elevates global living standards or severely concentrates wealth is not predetermined,' he said, adding that governments 'cannot afford to wait for the full transformation to arrive' before rethinking existing economic institutions.

Tom Cunningham, a researcher at METR and one of the statement's organisers, said uncertainty remained one of the biggest obstacles facing economists.

'We are driving in the fog,' he said, adding that a coordinated effort was needed 'to bring clarity to a confusing situation'.

Economists Urge Governments To Act Now

Rather than calling for AI development to slow, the statement urges economists, policymakers and technology leaders to prepare for its economic consequences before they become harder to manage.

It says leaders 'must act now to understand the economics of transformative AI' and build the incentives, guardrails and institutions needed to steer the technology 'in a direction that complements humans and benefits society'.

The accompanying press release said that effort should include expanding research into AI's economic impact and developing policies that help ensure the technology strengthens, rather than replaces, human capabilities.