Global Oil Supply at Risk As US Navy Refuses to Escort Commercial Tankers Through Hormuz in Fear of Iranian Attacks

The US Navy has declined daily shipping requests for military escorts through the Strait of Hormuz, citing the risk of Iranian attacks as too high amid the ongoing conflict.

More than 150 commercial vessels sit anchored outside the Strait of Hormuz, unable to move. Their operators have been calling the US Navy almost every day since the war on Iran began, asking for military escorts through the waterway. The answer, each time, has been no.

According to sources familiar with the matter, the Navy has declined near-daily requests from the global shipping industry for protection through the strait since fighting broke out on 28 February, telling companies that the risk of Iranian attack is too high.

The refusal contradicts President Donald Trump's repeated public pledges. He told reporters at Mar-a-Lago on Monday that the Navy would escort tankers 'if necessary' and 'if it's needed, we'll escort them right through.'

Shipping through the strait, just 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, has all but stopped since the conflict began. The passage normally carries around 20% of the world's oil and roughly a quarter of global liquefied natural gas exports.

Navy Tells Shipping Industry Hormuz Escorts Remain Too Dangerous

Three shipping industry sources told Reuters that the Navy has been holding regular briefings with oil and shipping counterparts. During those calls, it has stated plainly that escorts are not possible for now. One source said the assessment from Tuesday's briefing had not shifted. Escorts would only become viable once the threat level dropped.

A maritime security source put it bluntly. Securing the strait could require the US to take control of Iran's entire coastline. 'There are not enough naval vessels to do that and the risks remain high even with an escort,' the source said, adding that even a small convoy could be overwhelmed by swarms of fast boats or drones.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has declared the strait closed. On Tuesday, a senior IRGC official warned that Iran would not allow 'one litre of oil' to leave the region while US and Israeli strikes continued. Five tankers have been damaged since the conflict started. Two crew members are dead.

Washington's own messaging added to the confusion on Tuesday. Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on X that the Navy had successfully escorted a tanker through Hormuz, then deleted the post within half an hour. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed shortly afterwards that 'the US Navy has not escorted a tanker or a vessel at this time.' Iran's Revolutionary Guards called the deleted claim 'a complete lie.'

Crude Prices Surge Past $100 as Hormuz Oil Supply Dries Up

Brent crude briefly hit $119 (£96) per barrel over the weekend before falling below $90 (£72) on Tuesday after Trump suggested the war might end soon. US crude prices have climbed more than 28% since fighting began, according to CNBC. The average price of petrol in the US reached $3.54 (£2.85) per gallon as of 09 March.

Saudi Aramco's chief executive Amin Nasser called the crisis 'by far the biggest' the region's oil industry has ever faced. He warned of 'catastrophic consequences for the world's oil markets' if the disruption persists, noting that global inventories are at a five-year low. Aramco has been rerouting crude through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, expected to reach its full capacity of 7 million barrels per day within days.

Iraq has already cut production by 1.5 million barrels per day after running out of storage.

General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the Pentagon is examining escort options but offered no timeline. France has moved separately. President Emmanuel Macron, speaking from Cyprus on 09 March, announced a 'purely defensive' escort mission involving nearly a dozen warships, to begin once the most intense phase of fighting ends. Pakistan has also launched its own naval escort operation.

Adel Bakawan, director of the European Institute for Studies on the Middle East and North Africa, said the task would be near impossible. 'Neither France, the United States, an international coalition, nor anybody is in a position to secure the Strait of Hormuz,' he said.

The Pentagon renewed threats on Tuesday to strike Iran harder unless oil shipments resume and confirmed it was targeting mine-laying vessels and storage facilities along the Iranian coast.