Donald Trump Predicts Falling Energy Prices While Telling US Families To Be Thankful That 'Costs Are Not Even Higher'

The average price of petrol at an American pump hit a four-year high last week, but Donald Trump told the country relief is coming the moment the Iran war ends.

On 30 April 2026, the national average cost of petrol rose to £3.16 ($4.30) per gallon, a 44% increase from the £2.19 ($2.98) recorded on the eve of the US and Israel's strikes against Iran on 28 February, according to data from the American Automobile Association.

With the Strait of Hormuz still functionally closed by Iranian military action and a US naval blockade of Iranian ports now in effect, analysts warn the peak may not yet be in sight. Trump, however, remained confident. 'The gas will go down,' he told reporters. 'As soon as the war is over, it will drop like a rock.'

Trump's Contradictory Timeline on Post-War Fuel Relief

The 'drop like a rock' assurance is only the latest in a string of predictions from the Trump administration that have since required revision. In early March, Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNN that petrol would fall back below £2.20 ($3.00) per gallon 'before too long,' suggesting a timeline of weeks. By mid-April, that estimate had shifted considerably.

Trump himself, speaking on Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures on 13 April, offered a far less optimistic read: prices 'could be the same or maybe a little bit higher' heading into the November midterm elections. Days later, he reversed course again, telling a Fox Business interviewer that petrol would be 'much lower before midterm.' Wright, meanwhile, quietly acknowledged that sub-£2.20 ($3.00) petrol 'by the summer is an aggressive time frame now.'

The contradictions did not stop there. CNN reported that Trump directly undermined his own energy secretary's comments within 24 hours of Wright having made them, calling them 'totally wrong.' Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sought to reset expectations further still, stating he was 'optimistic' that £2.20 ($3.00) petrol could be achieved between 20 June and 20 September 2026.

What American Families Are Paying Since the War Began

The raw numbers make clear how severe the shock has been. Before 28 February, petrol averaged £2.19 ($2.98) per gallon. It crossed the £2.94 ($4.00) threshold in late March, which AAA surveys have consistently identified as the point at which consumers begin changing their driving and spending habits. By 4 May 2026, the national average had climbed further to £3.26 ($4.44) per gallon. California, home to nearly 40 million people, saw petrol prices surpass £4.41 ($6.00) per gallon.

Diesel has been hit even harder. The average diesel price reached approximately £4.04 ($5.50) per gallon, up from £2.76 ($3.76) before the war. The US Postal Service introduced a temporary 8% fuel surcharge on certain services including Priority Mail, while Amazon added a 3.5% fuel and logistics surcharge on third-party sellers using its platform.

London-based Unilever, which produces goods including Dove soap and Hellmann's mayonnaise, announced plans to raise prices by 2% to 3% in response to surging transport costs.

Agriculture is also under strain. Ken Foster, a professor of agricultural economics at Purdue University, told the Associated Press that food prices typically follow energy shocks by three to six months, meaning the full inflationary impact on retail grocery prices may not be visible to consumers until late summer. The UN World Food Programme has warned that 45 million additional people could tip into hunger if the conflict does not ease by mid-2026.

Trump's 'Small Price to Pay' Argument and Its Political Limits

Facing deepening political pressure, Trump and his Republican allies have sought to frame the fuel surge as a manageable trade-off. During a late-April White House appearance, Trump argued that many analysts had predicted oil would reach £220.50 ($300) per barrel. With Brent crude trading at approximately £73.50 ($100) per barrel as of early May, he said the damage was less severe than feared. The White House and its allies have returned repeatedly to the phrase 'a small price to pay' to describe the economic cost of the Iran military campaign.

Former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley put the argument more directly in a 4 May interview with Breitbart News. He argued that fuel costs, while higher than six months ago, are 'not nearly as high as they were in the Biden administration, and they're not as high as they would have been if the President hadn't taken those steps to unleash American energy.' Whatley simultaneously conceded that prices were 'currently too high.'

A CNBC All-America Economic Survey conducted from 15 to 19 April 2026, covering 1,000 respondents with a margin of error of 3.1%, found that nearly 80% of Americans had already changed their spending habits in response to higher fuel costs. A majority expected the elevated prices to last at least six months.

With the Strait still closed and peace talks yet to produce a breakthrough, whether Trump's 'rock' will fall before November's midterm elections remains one of the most consequential economic questions of his second term.