Trump Accused of Manipulating Oil and Stock Markets After Iran Denied His 'Productive Talks' Claim Entirely

Fresh accusations that Donald Trump is deliberately using statements on national security to move financial markets gained significant traction on Monday after a single post on Truth Social sent oil prices tumbling and stocks surging — only for Iran to flatly deny the entire premise within the hour. The episode drew sharp criticism from an Iranian academic, financial analysts, and social media commentators who argued the pattern was neither coincidence nor incompetence, but a calculated strategy to manipulate the markets in the president's favour.

At approximately 7:04 am ET, Trump posted on Truth Social claiming the United States and Iran had held 'very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.' He added that he had instructed the Department of War to 'postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period.' The post went live just two hours before US stock markets opened — and crucially, the five-day pause was set to expire at the close of the energy sector trading week.

A $3 Trillion Swing in 56 Minutes

The market reaction was immediate and dramatic. According to financial analysis firm The Kobeissi Letter, by 7:10 am ET — just six minutes after Trump's post — the S&P 500 had surged 240 points, adding £1.6 trillion ($2 trillion) in market capitalisation. Simultaneously, oil prices tumbled as much as 14 per cent, with West Texas Intermediate crude falling to around £70 ($89) a barrel.

Then came Tehran's response. Iran's foreign ministry told the semi-official Mehr News Agency that 'there is no dialogue between Tehran and Washington.' An Iranian official separately said that the government had 'no direct contact with Trump, not even through intermediaries.' Within minutes of that denial spreading, the S&P 500 shed 120 points, erasing £794 billion ($1 trillion) in market cap. The Kobeissi Letter described the total swing as '£2.4 trillion ($3 trillion) in market cap in 56 minutes, just in the S&P 500.'

'Every Week, When Markets Open'

The timing of the announcement did not go unnoticed. Iranian academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi, who is closely linked to the Iranian government, wrote on X that Trump had been doing this repeatedly. 'Every week, when markets open, Trump makes these kinds of statements to drive down oil prices. Even his five-day deadline aligns with the closure of the energy market,' Marandi wrote. 'But in reality, there are no negotiations underway, nor does Trump have the capability to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.'

The accusation echoed concerns raised in a viral TikTok post from commentator Aaron Parnas, which amassed nearly 30,000 likes within hours of being published on 23 March. Parnas argued that Trump had done the same thing with tariffs and was now applying the same playbook to oil and the stock market. 'He just says something to manipulate the market to change that,' Parnas said, pointing to the near-instant market response to Trump's Iran statement as evidence of a deliberate pattern.

Markets Move, But the War Doesn't

Trump later told Fox Business that Iran wants to make a deal 'badly' and that an agreement could be reached within five days or sooner. He separately told reporters that his special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner had held discussions with a 'top person' on the Iranian side, though he did not identify who that person was. Markets rose again on the back of those remarks. However, Iran's denial remained firm, and no third-party government confirmed any diplomatic contact had taken place, leaving the fundamental situation on the ground unchanged. The Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed, Iranian missile launches at Israel continued into Monday, and crude oil prices remained more than £24 ($30) above pre-war levels.

The five-day pause was framed around the energy trading week — a detail that critics said was too precise to be accidental. Oil prices have surged more than 50 per cent since the US-Israeli war on Iran began on 28 February, placing enormous pressure on American consumers at the pump and rattling global markets.