NOAA and WMO Are Sounding the Alarm on El Niño 2026: Here's Why This Winter Could Be Different

NOAA now puts the chances of a very strong El Niño this year at 81 per cent, warning it could become one of the most powerful climate events since records began in 1950, after earlier models led by the World Meteorological Organisation put the odds at just 10 per cent.

The sharp turnaround, revealed in a 9 July update from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, has prompted fresh scrutiny of how fast a rapidly warming strip of the Pacific can reshape global weather patterns.

That reversal means droughts in Southeast Asia, floods in East Africa and a disrupted winter for parts of the Northern Hemisphere are increasingly likely to be driven by the same Pacific signal.

Food prices, water supplies and tropical storm seasons across vulnerable regions are closely tied to how powerful this El Niño becomes before it peaks, according to assessments by WMO and other climate agencies.

Climate Models Point To Very Strong El Niño

NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ran 30 separate computer simulations of the coming months using its SPEAR climate model, and none projected a mild outcome.

In a July 2026 forecast note, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory said all 30 ensemble members produce a peak El Niño strength 'at least competitive with the strongest events over the past century', indicating a historically strong event is already under way.

What makes El Niño 2026 particularly notable is the speed of the change in expert opinion. In a February 2026 El Niño/La Niña update, WMO reported there was only a 10 per cent probability of El Niño developing for the March–May season, with neutral conditions judged far more likely.

By early July, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center was estimating a 97 per cent chance that El Niño conditions will persist through early spring 2027, effectively treating persistence as a near certainty.

The same advisory put the odds of a very strong El Niño during October–December at 81 per cent, a strength that would place 2026 in the top tier of events seen since 1950.

How El Niño 2026 Compares with 1997 and 2015

The two benchmarks against which this year is now being measured, the 1997–1998 and 2015–2016 El Niños, remain among the most damaging in modern records, with global loss estimates running into many billions of dollars.

NOAA's July advisory says the developing event is likely to rank among the strongest on record, placing 2026 in the same bracket as those earlier episodes.

According to NOAA monitoring, sea surface temperatures in the Niño‑1+2 zone, the easternmost Pacific Ocean region off the South American coast, have already reached around plus 2.7 degrees Celsius above normal.

In its Global Seasonal Climate Update issued on 2 July 2026, WMO warned that anomalies across key equatorial regions are expected to exceed plus two degrees Celsius before the expected winter peak arrives, a level associated with the most intense El Niño impacts in the historical record.

Where El Niño 2026 Is Already Shaping Weather

WMO's July update stated that a 'prolonged and dangerous heatwave' across the central and eastern United States has been linked by scientists to the developing El Niño pattern, based on observed temperature anomalies and circulation changes.

The same bulletin highlighted abnormal rainfall patterns in several regions as potential early signals of El Niño's emerging global footprint.

For Southeast Asia and the Philippines, research by the Philippine Institute for Development Studies found that the 1997–1998 El Niño destroyed an estimated 292,000 hectares of rice and corn crops.

Current seasonal outlooks from WMO and national meteorological services point to drier‑than‑average monsoon conditions in parts of the region for the remainder of this year, raising concern over a repeat of past agricultural losses.

East Africa faces a contrasting risk, with WMO indicating the possibility of above‑average rainfall from September to December that could be amplified by a developing Indian Ocean Dipole.

In previous strong El Niño years, that combination has been linked to floods and landslides in countries along the Horn of Africa.