NATO Fears Trump Could Turn Against European Allies if Republicans Lose Congress: 'Dark Times are Coming'

European NATO allies fear Donald Trump could retaliate against the alliance if the US Republican Party suffers major losses in the US midterm elections, potentially putting thousands of American troops in Europe at risk.

Five NATO diplomats warned that a Republican defeat could prompt the president to intensify his criticism of the alliance, particularly if a Democrat-controlled Congress limits his ability to pursue his domestic agenda.

Their concern is that Trump could turn to foreign policy to reassert his authority, where he has considerably more freedom to act as commander-in-chief.

One senior European defence official warned that presidents facing a hostile Congress can become more unpredictable. 'Usually what happens to lame-duck presidents is a mix of venting frustrations and adventurism in foreign policy,' the official said.

Another NATO diplomat was similarly concerned about Trump's potential reaction, saying: 'He could be very pissed off' and 'he'll be very harsh'.

Trump Could Withdraw Thousands More US Troops From Europe

The biggest immediate concern is the Pentagon's ongoing review of America's military presence in Europe, which is expected to conclude in December.

Three diplomats said Trump could use the review to withdraw thousands more US troops from the continent, potentially deepening an already significant divide between Washington and its European allies.

Other possible measures include reducing US contributions to NATO's common funding and limiting the PURL programme, which allows European countries to purchase American weapons for Ukraine.

The diplomats also raised concerns about Trump strengthening ties with Russia, potentially linking decisions about US troop deployments, Ukraine and Europe's wider security arrangements to a broader agreement with Vladimir Putin.

Oana Lungescu, a former NATO spokesperson and fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, warned that combining these issues in a deal with the Russian president could create a dangerous situation for European security.

European Allies Could Struggle to Replace US Military Support

A substantial US troop reduction could leave European countries struggling to replace military capabilities they have long relied on Washington to provide.

Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow at Defense Priorities, identified electronic warfare, air defence, intelligence and reconnaissance, aerial refuelling, and logistics as particularly difficult capabilities for European allies to replace.

US law currently sets a minimum troop presence of 76,000 in Europe. However, Kavanagh questioned whether that requirement would withstand legal scrutiny, noting that the Trump administration has previously ignored congressional funding guidance.

Not every NATO official believes the worst-case scenario is inevitable. Montenegrin Defence Minister Dragan Krapović pointed out that Congress also has a role in decisions about troop deployments.

'We have had speculations all the time about Trump... coming out of NATO; this has not happened so far,' he stated.

He added that Congress has the final say on reducing US troop numbers in Europe.

Midterm Results Could Deepen NATO's Existing Divisions

The concerns come amid worsening tensions between Washington and its European allies, including disagreements over support for Ukraine and Trump's renewed engagement with Putin.

The earlier restriction on Starlink services for Ukraine and Russia's escalating sabotage and hybrid warfare activities across Europe have added to concerns about the continent's security and NATO's integrity. Ukraine announced that the affected operating speeds had been restored on 24 October.

A Republican defeat could therefore create another major test for an alliance already facing questions about the reliability of American support. Regardless of how the midterm elections unfold, one social media user offered a bleak prediction about the country's future, writing: 'Regardless of the outcome, dark times are coming.'

However, diplomats' warnings remain predictions rather than evidence that Trump has decided to take specific action against NATO. The Pentagon's force posture review is still ongoing, and the outcome of the midterm elections has yet to be determined.