US Officials Wary of Israeli Claims on Iranian Chemical Weapons, Echoing Iraq 2002, as Gulf Officials Sceptical

Israeli intelligence has told the United States that Iran is considering using chemical weapons against its adversaries, including by developing missile-delivery technology or smuggling chemical agents into enemy countries. The allegations have divided US officials, with some questioning their credibility and others urging Washington to take the warnings seriously, The New York Times reported on 3 November.

The dispute has revived comparisons with the intelligence assessments that preceded the 2003 Iraq invasion. It has also raised questions among officials in Gulf countries, where Israeli representatives reportedly described Iranian chemical-weapons preparations without presenting supporting evidence during briefings.

Israeli Intelligence Raises Chemical Weapons Concerns

Israeli officials have described the alleged chemical threat as more urgent than Iran's nuclear ambitions. They told American counterparts that Tehran was developing ways to deliver chemical agents through missiles or smuggle them into other countries. The allegations concern possible Iranian preparations and capabilities, rather than a publicly confirmed decision by its leadership to launch a chemical attack.

The assessments were shared during discussions with US intelligence agencies and other officials over roughly the previous two weeks. Iran has repeatedly denied possessing chemical weapons and has previously characterised Israeli allegations about its chemical capabilities as psychological warfare.

US Officials Split Over Intelligence and Iraq Comparison

Some US officials view the Israeli intelligence as part of an effort by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government to persuade President Donald Trump's administration to resume large-scale military operations against Iran. Others believe the warnings warrant serious consideration amid broader concerns about possible Iranian attacks on American interests.

The scepticism has revived comparisons with US intelligence assessments in 2002 that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction. Those assessments substantially overstated Iraq's weapons capabilities.

Post-war investigations found that Iraq had destroyed its undeclared chemical-weapons stockpile in 1991 and had not resumed production, although it retained small, covert laboratories researching chemicals and poisons, years before the invasion.

Gulf Officials Question Evidence in Israeli Briefings

Israel also shared its assessments with officials in Gulf countries. A regional official told The New York Times that Israeli representatives described Iranian efforts to make chemical weapons operational but did not provide supporting evidence during the briefings, leaving some recipients unconvinced.

Some Gulf officials suspected Israel was seeking to persuade Washington and its regional partners to support a more intense phase of the conflict. The suspicion was reported as an assessment by officials, rather than an established account of Israel's motives.

Netanyahu's Chemical Weapons Claim Predates Latest Warnings

Netanyahu publicly claimed in July that Iran possessed chemical weapons. In a Newsmax interview on 7 July, reported by The Jerusalem Post the following day, the Israeli prime minister said: 'They definitely have chemical weapons.' Iran has denied possessing such weapons.

The latest intelligence-sharing came as US voters went to the polls on 3 November. US Central Command (CENTCOM), the military command responsible for American operations across the Middle East, reportedly had a plan for possible strikes against Iran beginning as early as 4 November, after the midterm elections and with three aircraft carriers in the region, according to US officials. Trump has not publicly confirmed a decision to launch a new campaign.

US Assessments Describe Research, Not Confirmed Chemical Attack Plans

The 2024 Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community said Iran 'probably aims' to continue research and development of chemical and biological agents for offensive purposes. The assessment described research objectives, not confirmation of an operational chemical-weapons stockpile or an imminent attack.

Iran began developing a chemical-weapons programme during the Iran-Iraq War in response to Iraqi chemical attacks in the 1980s. Tehran acknowledged developing the programme during the conflict but said it terminated it after the 1988 ceasefire. Subsequent US assessments have continued to raise concerns about Iran's chemical and biological research.

Israeli emergency drills under way this week have not made chemical-weapons scenarios a major focus, the report said. It also said Israel's Home Front Command, which handles civilian emergency preparedness, had not issued widespread new public guidance on such a threat. Netanyahu's office said Israel closely monitored threats posed by Iran and remained prepared to confront them.

No publicly disclosed evidence has established that Iran's leadership has authorised chemical-weapons use.