A Supreme Leader in Absentia: Is Mojtaba Khamenei Already Dead, or Is He the IRGC's Secret Puppet?

Mojtaba Khamenei was proclaimed Iran's new supreme leader in Tehran after his father was killed on 28 February, but more than two weeks on he has not appeared in public, prompting analysts and even Donald Trump to question whether Mojtaba Khamenei is alive at all or merely a convenient name for Iran's Revolutionary Guard to rule through.

Mojtaba's succession followed the reported killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by Israeli strikes, an escalation that has also claimed a string of senior figures at the top of the Islamic Republic.

In rapid succession, according to accounts cited by regional experts, Israel and the United States have eliminated the head of Iran's National Defence Council, the commander of the Revolutionary Guard, the defence minister and the intelligence chief.

Into this vacuum stepped Ali Larijani, a veteran insider who became the de facto head of the system – only to be killed himself in targeted strikes just 17 days after taking charge.

Mojtaba Khamenei Missing, Larijani Dead – So Who Runs Iran?

The news came after Ali Larijani, long regarded as the second‑most powerful man in Iran, was reportedly killed in attacks that also took out the head of the Basij militia, a fearsome arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Larijani had deep roots across Tehran's political and economic network and, in recent years, had overseen nuclear negotiations and directed a brutal crackdown on protesters that left thousands dead or tortured, according to analysts as reported.

His sudden removal, on top of earlier assassinations, leaves a regime officially headed by an invisible supreme leader and, in theory, a three‑man interim council.

Under Iran's constitution, that council comprises President Masoud Pezeshkian, Ayatollah Alireza Aarafi – who leads the powerful Guardian Council of clerics and lawyers – and Justice Gholam‑Hossein Mohseni‑Ejei, the head of the judiciary.

On paper, they share authority over a nation of some 90 million people. In practice, experts say real power has been sliding for years towards the IRGC, and the current war with Israel and the US has only accelerated that shift.

One analyst quoted in the piece described what remains in Tehran as a 'rump regime' that is 'hardline and more connected to the IRGC', with civilian and clerical office‑holders increasingly dependent on the Guard's backing to survive.

This helps explain the unease around Mojtaba Khamenei. Shortly after his father, wife and son were reported killed in the late‑February strike, Iran's clerics moved to name the younger Khamenei as supreme leader. Since then, however, he has not been seen in public. In a sign of how opaque the situation has become, even Trump has publicly admitted he is 'not sure' whether Mojtaba is alive.

The IRGC's Hand In Choosing A 'Supreme Leader'

Observers of Iran's internal dynamics argue that, absent a visible leader, the IRGC is effectively running the show and will ensure that any successor at the top is a reliable hardliner.

Yigal Carmon, president of the Middle East Media Research Institute in Israel, told the original outlet that Ali Larijani's brother, Sadiq Larijani, is among the favourites to step into the vacuum while Mojtaba remains offstage.

'He might be a candidate because the IRGC would want a hardliner. They need someone who will go with them, who will move with them, who will collaborate with them,' Carmon said, adding that Sadiq 'is not a competitor' to the Guard and 'will work with them'.

Sadiq Larijani currently chairs the Expediency Discernment Council, which advises the supreme leader, and holds the rank of grand ayatollah, with a family pedigree that includes opposition to the Shah – all useful signals of ideological reliability.

Janatan Sayeh, an Iran analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, echoed that assessment, saying Sadiq's institutional role and status made him a logical choice if the regime wants to keep the leadership tightly within a trusted clerical‑hardline circle.

Another contender mentioned is Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Larijani's main rival. Khosro Isfahani of the National Union for Democracy in Iran noted Ghalibaf's long‑standing ties to the IRGC – he once commanded its air force – and his prominence on state television, where he has led regular chants of 'Death to America! Death to Israel!' Ghalibaf is seen by some as a bridge figure between Mojtaba Khamenei, the bureaucracy and the Guard.

Meanwhile, former president Hassan Rouhani and cleric‑academic Ayatollah Aarafi were both floated as more centrist options, as was Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the republic's founding father, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

But according to the report, IRGC commander Gen Ahmad Vahid pushed the Assembly of Experts to choose Mojtaba instead, partly to signal defiance towards Washington and Tel Aviv.

Vali Nasr, a professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, argued in a post on X that each assassination is pushing Iran's leadership further into the IRGC's grip. 'With every assassination US and Israel [are] engineering greater radicalization of Iran's leadership,' he wrote, warning of a 'bleak future for Iran, Iranians, the region' and a deeper entanglement for the United States in Middle Eastern conflict.

High Office, High Risk In A Hardening Regime

The question of whether Mojtaba Khamenei is alive or operating as a supreme leader in absentia matters less, some analysts suggest, than the pattern the killings have created. Senior figures can see that prominence now carries mortal danger.

'As senior officials watch figures such as Khamenei and Larijani get eliminated, they notice that the personal risk associated with holding high office in the Islamic Republic rises sharply,' Isfahani said. In his view, such strikes confront regime insiders with a brutal calculation, 'absolute annihilation or total surrender'.