'If They Rise, They Rise' — Trump Shrugs Off Surging Pump Prices as Qatar's Energy Minister Warns Oil Could Hit $150 a Barrel

As the US-Iran war enters its seventh day, Americans are already facing rising fuel costs — and one of the world's most powerful energy officials is warning that further disruption lies ahead. Qatar's Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi said on Friday that crude prices could surge to $150 (approximately £110) a barrel within two to three weeks if ships and tankers remain unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz—the world's most critical oil export route. Al-Kaabi warned the war could 'bring down the economies of the world', predicting that all Gulf energy exporters would halt production within weeks. Asked about rising fuel costs, President Donald Trump offered a markedly different tone, saying 'If they rise, they rise.'

That response from the White House stands in sharp contrast to the alarm being sounded across global energy markets. US crude oil prices on Thursday topped $80 per barrel as the escalating conflict disrupted global fuel supplies, with traffic in the Strait of Hormuz at a standstill due to attacks on tankers—the biggest single-day price gain since May 2020. By Friday, the situation had deteriorated further, with West Texas Intermediate futures climbing 11.27% to $90.14 (around £67.31) per barrel, while global benchmark Brent rose 8.09% to $92.32 (about £68.99), and US crude gained nearly 35% across the week.

The Hormuz Chokepoint

Al-Kaabi also forecast natural gas prices rising to $40 (approximately £29.89) per million British thermal units, warning that 'everybody's energy price is going to go higher' and that there 'will be shortages of some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply.' The Strait connects the biggest Gulf oil producers with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, carrying roughly a fifth of the world's daily oil supply.

Qatar halted its production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) after Iran continued to strike Gulf countries in retaliation for Israeli and US attacks. The country's LNG output accounts for about 20% of global supply and plays a major role in balancing Asian and European demand for the fuel. Al-Kaabi said even if the war ended immediately, it would take Qatar 'weeks to months' to return to a normal cycle of deliveries.

Americans Already Paying More

The impact on ordinary Americans is already tangible. The national average price of unleaded petrol hit $3.11 (around £2.32) per gallon on Tuesday, up 11 cents overnight—the biggest single-day spike since 4 March 2022, according to fuel price analyst Patrick De Haan. Retail petrol prices have since risen nearly 27 cents to $3.25 (£0.20 to £2.43, according to conversion rates at the time of publication) per gallon on average, according to motorist group AAA—the last time prices rose by a similar margin was in March 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Oil is traded in a global market regardless of how much the United States produces domestically. Energy analyst Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former adviser to President George W Bush, warned that if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen 'soon', oil prices are likely heading to $100 (about £74.73) a barrel, pushing petrol prices back above $4 (£2.99) a gallon nationally.

A Chain Reaction Feared

Wall Street is watching closely. JPMorgan's head of global commodities research Natasha Kaneva warned that a war lasting more than three weeks would exhaust Gulf countries' storage capacity, forcing production to halt—under that scenario, Brent crude could hit $120 (nearly £89) per barrel. Deutsche Bank research analyst Michael Hsueh forecast an even more severe outcome, warning that Brent could surge toward $200 (approximately £147.78) per barrel if Iran enforced a full closure of the Strait through mines, anti-ship missiles and other weapons.

'Energy price shocks have historically been disruptive for households and businesses, and the latest edition, if sustained, would constitute another unhelpful inflation impulse,' James McCann, senior economist at Edward Jones, said. The timing is particularly bruising for the Trump administration, which had repeatedly celebrated falling gas prices as a signature economic achievement before the war began.

Rising oil prices do not stop at the petrol station. As energy costs climb, so do the prices of plastics, fertilisers, household goods and air travel—effectively functioning as a broad tax on consumers worldwide. With the Strait of Hormuz handling roughly a fifth of the world's daily oil supply, a prolonged disruption would ripple across every major economy. For Americans already navigating an affordability crisis, the gap between the White House's indifference and the warnings coming from the Gulf could not be wider.