Empty Shelves Loom: UK Braces for Food Shortages and Supermarket Gaps as Iran War Drags On

A leaked government document has revealed that the United Kingdom may experience food shortages, leading to empty shop shelves sometime in June to August. UK ministers are now drawing up a contingency plan to address the possibility of supermarket gaps this summer due to gas and fuel shortages.

In a worst-case scenario that the Iran war continues, the supply of carbon dioxide may wane. Carbon dioxide, or CO₂, is vital for the food industry because it is used in packaging, fizzy drinks, brewing and the slaughter of animals such as livestock and poultry.

Food Shortages in the UK Due to Iran War

CO₂ supplies for the UK and other European nations pass through the Strait of Hormuz. First reported by The Times, a leaked analysis codenamed 'Exercise Turnstone' rehearsed several scenarios of how the UK industries could be affected by a long closure of the Straight of Hormuz.

Officials from a number of departments, such as the UK Treasury, the Ministry of Defence and the British Prime Minister's office, conducted 'Exercise Turnstone' to prepare for a worst-case scenario that could impact the UK and its constituents.

UK Food Shortages Due to Several Disruptions

'Exercise Turnstone,' which is run by the government's Cobra emergency committee, detailed multiple disruptive events happening at the same time if the Iran war continues. These events include the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed come June, a lack of long-lasting peace deal between Iran, the US and Israel, and mechanical failure at one of the UK's key CO₂ plants.

Another cause for concern is the disruption of the supply of fertiliser, which mainly comes from the conflict region. Since the conflict began, the Iranian government responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz, effectively disrupting the manufacture and flow of fertilisers needed to grow crops, vegetables and fruits. Fertiliser prices have spiked by 60% in some markets.

Industries Affected by CO₂ Shortages

The UK government has warned that CO₂ inventories could fall below 18 per cent of current levels. This is based on an analysis that a vital UK plant might suffer from a mechanical error, leading to production failure in ammonia and fertiliser, which are made into CO₂ as a by-product.

The government's analysis predicts that the farming and hospitality industries will be the hardest hit by a CO₂ shortage in the UK. This is primarily because the gas is used to prolong the shelf life of food, including fresh salads, packaged meats and baked goods. CO₂ is also used in the humane slaughter of chickens and pigs, as it is used to stun livestock before they are butchered.

FIFA Could Also be Affected Due to Shortages in the UK

Shortages could also affect UK and European breweries because CO₂ is used to make drinks fizzy, raising concerns that shortages could disrupt the FIFA World Cup, which begins in June. But the government reassures the public that 'Exercise Turnstone' is just a planning tool used to assess possible scenarios in the future.

Speaking to the press after the 'Exercise Turnstone' document was leaked, senior officials reassured the public that the analysis was a government rehearsal of a worst-case scenario if the Straight of Hormuz remained closed by June. Business Secretary Peter Kyle declared that a CO₂ shortage is not a concern 'at the moment.' Mr Kyle told Sky News: 'Right now, people should go on as they are.'