Labour Popularity Surges Amid 'Burnham Bounce ': How Accurate Are the Lord Ashcroft Polls?

A polling firm has coined the term 'Burnham Bounce' to describe the recent increase in the popularity of the Labour Party. 'Labour have found themselves ahead in recent polls—a situation hard to imagine even a few weeks ago. Very much unlike his predecessor, the new prime minister dominates the headlines with a blizzard of plans and policies,' wrote Lord Ashcroft while releasing his latest poll.

He continued: 'Andy Burnham seems to have changed the political weather, an achievement that few politicians can claim.' In the survey conducted from 30 July to 3 August, the Labour Party came out as the most-favoured party among seven, which included—in this order—the Conservative, Reform UK, Green Party, Liberal Democrat, Scottish National Party (SNP) and Plaid Cymru. But many more people voted for an alternative party compared to those who favoured the SNP and Plaid Cymru.

Is Lord Ashcroft Poll Accurate?

The result of the Lord Ashcroft poll was trending following its release. However, many have raised questions about its authenticity. One X user said: 'I'm not sure why Lord Ashcroft polls are still taken seriously,' while another agreed: 'Lord Ashcroft Polls aren't renowned for their accuracy.'

Lord Ashcroft didn't particularly do well in the pollster ratings for the 2024 elections. Of the 20 pollsters reviewed, Lord Ashcroft ranked 10th with a 57% rating. For comparison, the top three were Verian (86%), Norstat (85%) and JL Partners (81%), according to the UK Election Data Vault.

The rating was based on three criteria: accuracy, 70%; longevity, 10%; and membership of the British Polling Council (BPC), 20%. Lord Ashcroft is not a member of the BPC. In other words, results from the Lord Ashcroft poll, and many other polls, are not set in stone.

Who Would Make the Best Prime Minister?

One of the questions asked in the Lord Ashcroft Polls is who would be the best prime minister among three prospects: Burnham, the Conservative Party's Kemi Badenoch and Reform UK's Nigel Farage. Burnham received 2,308 points from 5,303 unweighted sample. Kemi Badenoch received 890 points and Farage had 785. But 1,319 would prefer another alternative.

Some have said there is a warmth to Burnham that hadn't been present in a prime minister in a long time, while another noted that he's not a 'run-of-the-mill posh boy.' Lord Ashcroft said about the results, 'In purely political terms, Burnham has had about the best start he could have hoped for.'

But the election is far off. The next general election is set for 2029. A separate poll showed a more divisive stance on Burnham. He enjoyed a 38% favourability rating in YouGov's first poll since Burnham moved into Downing Street. However, his unfavourability rating was at 35%.

Some 26% of the population was still unsure about him as of July 2026. YouGov ranked sixth among pollsters in the pollsters rating with a 70% raw ranking for the 2024 UK general elections. While Farage was Burnham's closest competition in the Lord Ashcroft polls, YouGov believes the sitting prime minister should be wary about the Conservative's possible candidate.

'One thing the new prime minister will have to keep an eye on is the growing popularity of opposition leader Kemi Badenoch, whose latest favourability rating is the highest yet recorded by YouGove, as well as the highest recorded of any Conservative leader since 2021,' the pollster stated.