Labour Surges Past Reform UK for First Time in 16 Months as 'Burnham Bounce' Takes Hold

Labour has moved ahead of Reform UK in a national opinion poll for the first time since March 2025, delivering an early boost to Andy Burnham just one week after he entered Downing Street.

The More in Common survey places Labour on 28%, four points ahead of Reform UK on 24%. The Conservatives remain on 22%, the Liberal Democrats rise to 12%, and the Greens fall three points to 8%. Labour's support increased by four points while Reform dropped by two.

The result does not prove that Labour has regained a lasting national lead. However, a separate YouGov poll places Labour and Reform level on 22%, with the Conservatives only one point behind. Together, the surveys suggest the political race has tightened dramatically after months in which Nigel Farage's party appeared firmly ahead.

What Is Driving the 'Burnham Bounce'?

Burnham entered office promising a 'cost of living government' and quickly announced measures aimed at producing visible savings for households and businesses.

His first-week policies included reducing tax on electricity bills, introducing a lower £2 cap on bus fares and cutting business rates for pubs, clubs and live music venues by 20%. The government says the measures are fully funded, although opponents have questioned how Burnham will finance his wider programme.

The prime minister has also adopted a more active media strategy than his predecessor, repeatedly appearing before voters and presenting his government as a break from years of political instability.

More in Common's Luke Tryl said Labour's early focus on living costs appeared to be winning back voters lost on both the left and right. Burnham himself said he would not get 'carried away', but believed his government had begun connecting with the public.

The change is visible beyond voting intention. UK consumer confidence recorded its largest monthly improvement since November 2023, although that survey was conducted before Burnham formally became prime minister. Researchers said anticipation of political change probably contributed to the rise, alongside warm weather and England's World Cup run.

Why Is Reform UK Losing Ground?

Labour's recovery comes as Reform and Farage face weeks of damaging headlines.

Farage is under scrutiny over gifts and political funding, including a reported £5 million gift from cryptocurrency billionaire Christopher Harborne. Parliamentary authorities are examining the matter, while other questions have been raised about financial support connected to convicted fraudster George Cottrell. Farage and Reform have denied wrongdoing and portrayed the investigations as politically motivated.

His personal ratings have also fallen sharply. YouGov found that only 22% of Britons held a favourable opinion of Farage, compared with 68% who viewed him negatively, producing a net score of minus 46.

Reform's decline may therefore reflect both Burnham's strong start and difficulties within Farage's party.

Does the Poll Put Labour Back on Course to Win?

Not yet. The More in Common result remains one survey, and other polling shows the three largest parties separated by only a few points.

YouGov's latest figures place Reform and Labour together on 22%, with the Conservatives on 21%. All three are close enough that small changes in turnout, leadership popularity or economic conditions could alter the race substantially.

The poll does, however, change the political narrative. Reform no longer looks untouchable, Labour has demonstrated that some lost voters can be recovered, and Burnham has gained valuable momentum before facing harder questions over housing, social care and the funding of his promises.

The 'Burnham bounce' may still prove temporary. But after more than a year behind Reform, Labour has finally produced evidence that Britain's political direction can move again.