Ex‑FBI Agent: It's Too Soon To Call Those Nancy Guthrie Notes Fake — Here's Why

The FBI has confirmed that some ransom notes in the Nancy Guthrie kidnapping investigation in Arizona may still be genuine, even after earlier claims that all the messages were hoaxes.

In a fresh statement from its Phoenix office on Wednesday, 1 July, the bureau said several ransom notes linked to the disappearance of Guthrie, 84, were received after she vanished from her Tucson home in late January. While some have been written off as 'extortion attempts without legitimacy', other ransom demands 'may potentially be legitimate and are still being investigated as such.'

The case of Nancy Guthrie, mother of Today co-host Savannah Guthrie, remains classified as a kidnapping for ransom.

Ex-FBI Agent Questions Rush To Dismiss Nancy Guthrie Notes

The news came after retired FBI agent Jason Pack publicly pushed back on the idea that investigators could already pronounce every Nancy Guthrie ransom note a fake.

Speaking in an on-air interview, Pack said he did not understand how anyone could 'definitively say a note is or is not legitimate until you know exactly what happened.'

'You don't know who sent it yet,' he said, arguing that there has not been enough time in recent days to fully vet the latest messages, including the note sent to TMZ.

In his view, ruling out authenticity this quickly risks leaning more on instinct than on hard evidence.

Pack spelt out the kind of work that still needs to happen behind the scenes. Investigators, he said, have to analyse technical details such as IP addresses and other metadata attached to digital messages, then cross-check that material against what they know about Guthrie's disappearance.

'Just because you think something may not fit a certain profile, that's not the same thing as having specific evidence,' he warned.

FBI And Sheriff Stress 'Kidnapping For Ransom' Status

The FBI's Phoenix office has now tried to reset expectations. In its written update, posted five months after Guthrie went missing, the bureau said there had been 'several ransom notes' throughout the investigation. Some are now tagged as bogus extortion. Others, however, might still have come from someone involved in the abduction and are being treated that way.

The FBI stressed that Nancy Guthrie's disappearance 'continues to be investigated as a kidnapping for ransom case', even as local agencies remain formally in charge.

The bureau said it 'has and will continue to offer all assistance possible in the investigation; however, local authorities remain the lead.'

That local lead is the Pima County Sheriff's Department, which has been managing the search since Guthrie was reported missing on 1 February.

Drops of her blood were found on the front porch of her home near Tucson. Later that month, the FBI released surveillance footage showing a masked individual outside her house on the night she vanished, described as a man between 5ft 9in and 5ft 10in with an average build, carrying a 25‑litre Ozark Trail Hiker Pack backpack.

In a statement this week, sheriff's spokesperson Angelica Carrillo said the investigation remains 'active and ongoing' and that forensic analysis of DNA and video evidence is still underway.

The department has also directed all questions about the ransom notes back to the FBI, while insisting that 'every tip and lead is taken seriously and is forwarded directly to our detectives, who continue to work in coordination with the FBI.'

Crime Scene Expert: 'Explain The Blood On The Front Porch'

If Pack's hesitation is rooted in digital forensics, another expert is far more sceptical of the ransom notes for very physical reasons.

Crime scene investigator Sheryl McCollum said she doubts the legitimacy of the communications that have surfaced because the writers have not provided any concrete information about what happened to Guthrie at the house.

For McCollum, a real kidnapper focused on money would at least show they know something only the perpetrator could know.

'If this was about ransom, they have just failed spectacularly,' she said in a televised interview. 'I need them to write a letter to explain the blood on the front porch. Tell me how that blood got there.'

McCollum suggested that investigators may still be engaging with the note writer, or writers, not because they believe every word, but because any ongoing dialogue might eventually expose whoever is 'torturing Nancy Guthrie's family.'

'I truly believe they're trying to draw this person out because he's been quiet for two months,' she said.

Conflicting Signals And A Family Left Waiting

The public timeline of the ransom notes is messy and emotional, and that is before you factor in the Guthrie family's own responses.

The first known letter in early February reportedly demanded millions in bitcoin and included specific details about Guthrie's home, from a broken back‑porch light to an Apple Watch with a white band on the bedroom floor.

A second note, days later, claimed Guthrie had died and reportedly said she was 'buried with nature now.'

Another round of emails months later came from someone claiming to know the kidnappers and to have a phone hidden in a 'secure location' with video of the 'main guy' with Guthrie on the day the sender described as 'probably her last.'

Investigators, according to the unnamed FBI official, later treated those early notes and the more recent email as hoaxes. To test the first demand, the FBI even deposited a small amount of cryptocurrency into an account as instructed. When the money sat untouched, and after other unspecified checks, agents concluded the notes were not connected to Guthrie's disappearance.

That clinical process, however, sits in sharp contrast to how the family experienced those same messages. Savannah Guthrie has previously said she believes the two notes her family responded to were 'real', and has spoken about the agony of trying to decide how seriously to take communications from strangers who might be trying to cash in on pain.

In March, shortly before returning to Today, she said she understood that 'most of them, it's my understanding, are not real' and criticised anyone sending fake notes to a 'family in pain.' But she added that she tended to believe in the two demands that prompted a response from her relatives.

Confusion over the Nancy Guthrie ransom notes exploded after an unnamed FBI official was quoted this week as saying that three of the messages were fake and that none of the ransom communications was believed to be genuine.

Those notes included two early demands sent to media outlets in February and a third message sent last week to a celebrity news site from someone claiming to know the kidnappers.

The new FBI statement, posted on X by the Phoenix field office, appears to walk that back, or at least complicate it, by acknowledging that some ransom notes simply cannot be ruled out yet.

Beyond that, nothing is confirmed yet. No arrests have been made, and no suspects have been publicly identified. For now, the only constant in the Nancy Guthrie case is that the most important question, what really happened to her, remains unanswered.

The FBI has urged anyone with information to call 1‑800‑CALL‑FBI or 88-CRIME, while the Pima County Sheriff's Office continues to field tips on its own number, 520-351-4900.