Starmer Weighing Exit After Burnham's Makerfield Landslide Left Him with No Cards to Play

Sir Keir Starmer is said to be privately weighing whether to resign as Prime Minister following Andy Burnham's commanding victory in the Makerfield by-election, according to senior Labour insiders. A senior ally of the Prime Minister has put the likelihood of him choosing to fight on at just 25 per cent, a stark signal of how dramatically the political ground has shifted within days.

The PM spent the weekend at Chequers with his wife Victoria, described by those close to him as a period of reflection on 'what is best for the party and for the country.' While Starmer has publicly insisted he intends to stay and contest any leadership challenge, sources suggest his mood changed sharply once the full scale of Burnham's win became clear.

Burnham Takes 55% as Reform Trails 20 Points Behind

Burnham secured 55 per cent of the vote in Makerfield, with Reform UK trailing in second place on just 35 per cent. For many Labour MPs who had feared being swept away by Nigel Farage's party at the next general election, the result offered both a warning and a lifeline, with Burnham now widely seen as the figure most capable of halting Reform's advance.

A Labour MP and Burnham ally said Sir Keir's time in No10 is up, using language associated with Donald Trump to make the point: 'As Donald Trump would say — Keir Starmer doesn't hold any cards here. He needs to set out a timetable to go. Andy offers a lifeline for all those seats that were going to get smashed out the park by Reform at the next election. It's a matter of survival.'

Cabinet Turns, Allies Thin Out

Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander told the Prime Minister directly that he should set a timetable to leave office, according to reporting by the BBC — a move that would clear the path for Burnham to enter Downing Street. Other cabinet figures, including Energy Secretary Ed Miliband and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, are said to share that view.

A Labour frontbencher was blunt: 'The PM just doesn't have many friends left. It is about Keir Starmer. He is the problem. If Andy Burnham wasn't challenging him someone else would be.' Another senior source echoed that sentiment simply: 'He is very isolated.'

The Risk of a Brutal Battle

Starmer is said to be acutely aware that a drawn-out leadership contest risks plunging Labour into what insiders describe as a 'very brutal' internal war, with 'red on red' infighting potentially damaging the party's standing ahead of a general election.

A former minister urged Starmer to 'set a timetable and step down at conference,' warning: 'He has to decide if he goes with dignity or gets dragged out.' Another added that if Starmer refuses, 'it kicks off with resignations next week.'

A small number of Labour MPs remain fiercely loyal and have pushed back against what they see as a coordinated move to force him out. One warned: 'If colleagues choose to go head first into a new leadership trap now, the opposition will seize it, there will be a general election, and we will lose MPs following the 2024 high.' Others cautioned that Burnham must win a proper leadership contest to carry authority, with one MP saying: 'If Burnham doesn't win a leadership election this year and is installed in No10 he will lose a general election next year.'

The events of this weekend mark a potentially decisive turning point in British politics. If Starmer steps down, it would set in motion Labour's first leadership contest since 2020 and hand Burnham a credible shot at the country's top job. With Reform UK continuing to reshape the electoral map, any Labour leadership contest would carry consequences well beyond the party itself.