Nancy Guthrie Search: 'Stomach-Turning' Twist as Gamblers Bet on Arrest

The bet is worded in the blunt, dispassionate language of the internet: 'Will someone be arrested in connection with the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie by Feb 28?' No mention of the fact that Nancy is an 84‑year‑old grandmother, or that her daughter is TODAY show anchor Savannah Guthrie, or that the family has been living through every parent's private nightmare since she vanished on 1 February.

And yet more than $188,000 has already been staked on that single question, almost twice the $100,000 reward the FBI is offering for information that might actually help find her.

Welcome to the stomach‑turning frontier where true crime crosses over into real-time speculation.

Polymarket Turns Nancy Guthrie Search Into a Betting Market

The market is hosted on Polymarket, a fast‑growing US‑based 'prediction market' that allows users to place crypto‑denominated bets on whether certain events will happen. Traditionally, that has meant things like election results, economic data, even the outcome of reality TV shows. Morally murky at times, certainly, but mostly abstract.

Nancy Guthrie's disappearance is anything but abstract.

Polymarket is currently allowing users to wager on whether someone will be arrested in connection with her suspected abduction by Saturday 28 February. As of Thursday, traders were pricing the chance of an arrest by that date at around 2 percent, a dramatic collapse from roughly 57 percent earlier in the month.

If you bought 'yes' shares when the market was brimming with early optimism, you're now staring at a likely loss. If you bet 'no,' that no arrest will be made in time. You stand to profit from the absence of a breakthrough in an elderly woman's kidnapping case.

There is, unsurprisingly, a backlash.

'Betting about the outcome of an elderly woman's kidnapping is stomach‑turning and insensitive,' Evan Nierman, founder and CEO of crisis PR firm Red Banyan, told the Daily Mail. 'Even if you think prediction markets are useful in other contexts, for most people this instantly crosses a bright red line.'

Nierman went further, raising what feels like the darkest question in the room; 'There is also real danger that deranged people may be incentivized to commit crimes with the hope of profiting from prediction markets.'

'Unregulated' Space Fuels Ethical Concerns Around Guthrie Case

Prediction platforms like Polymarket, and rival site Kalshi, have grown at speed by operating in areas largely untouched by traditional gambling regulators. They insist they offer 'information markets' rather than pure betting; the idea being that crowd-sourced odds reflect the collective wisdom and ignorance of thousands of traders.

Daniel O'Boyle, a senior analyst at London‑based firm InGame Intel, was blunt about why Polymarket can run a market on an alleged kidnapping at all. 'There is nothing stopping Polymarket from offering bets on crimes and kidnappings, because they're unregulated,' he said.

In the UK, conventional bookmakers are heavily regulated and would almost certainly be hammered for taking bets on whether a named victim of an active kidnapping case would be found or her suspected abductor arrested. Yet Polymarket, which runs on blockchain technology and targets a global user base, sits largely outside that framework.

The timing only deepens the unease. The Guthrie family has pleaded for information since Nancy disappeared at the start of the month. A mysterious individual has reportedly claimed online that he 'saw Nancy 5 days ago,' a comment now being pored over as potential evidence by internet sleuths and, presumably, law enforcement.

On top of that, a former FBI agent recently decoded what he said was a hidden message in Savannah Guthrie's public appeal to the kidnappers; a quiet signal, he suggested, meant for investigators rather than the cameras. Every twist has been fed, dissected and amplified online. Now it is monetised.

The Guthrie market is not the only ethical headache facing this new industry. Earlier this week, rival platform Kalshi announced it had suspended and fined Artem Kaptur, an editor who works with YouTube heavyweight MrBeast, for what amounted to insider trading on the outcome of MrBeast's own videos.

According to Kalshi, Kaptur placed a series of uncannily well‑timed bets on how those videos would perform while having privileged access to production plans. The platform handed him a two‑year ban, imposed a $20,000 penalty and referred the matter to federal authorities.

For the gamblers, it is another volatile market. For Nancy Guthrie's family, it is one more reminder that the internet doesn't just watch tragedy any more. It wagers on it.