'California Is Super Overdue': Scientist Warns Mega Earthquake Could Strike Within Months

Geophysicist Stefan Burns has warned that a mega earthquake could strike California within the next few months, stating the region is 'super overdue' following a deadly 7.4-magnitude tremor in Colombia on Monday.

The scientist claims that the seismic energy released by the South American disaster is currently transferring pressure toward vulnerable US fault lines.

The 7.4-magnitude earthquake in San Jose Del Palmar caused structural collapses and widespread damage earlier this week. Burns, who accurately forecasted the Colombian rupture two months ago, now cautions that the resulting geological stress places the entire US West Coast, particularly Southern California, firmly in the crosshairs for a major seismic event over the next six to 12 months.

Seismic Stress and the Threat of a Mega Earthquake

Burns explained during a YouTube livestream that the energy released during massive tremors does not remain local. These seismic waves travel through the Earth and load distant geological faults with additional pressure, eventually forcing them to rupture.

He singled out the US West Coast and the New Madrid Seismic Zone in the Midwest as hotspots that may have been activated by the recent devastation in Colombia.

The geophysicist warned that the next six to 12 months will be a highly critical period. He observed that many mega earthquakes throughout recent history have occurred within months of each other.

'It's that six month to one year time frame that we're worried about and if we get kind of past that then maybe we can start to breathe a bit of a sigh of relief,' Burns said. 'But because we've been seeing so much activity in Northern California, it's hard to rule out Northern California. So really all of California is problematic right now.'

Historical Patterns Triggering California Fault Lines

Burns first predicted the Colombian disaster in late June. He stated at the time that magnitude 7.2 and 7.5 earthquakes in Venezuela would send out waves of energy capable of rupturing another major fault shortly after. He theorised that anytime two large earthquakes erupt close together within the same year, they are linked.

This chain reaction travelling between South America and North America has clear historical precedent. A group of three powerful quakes over magnitude 7.0 caused extensive damage throughout the Midwest between December 1811 and February 1812. These tremors were felt from Cincinnati to St Louis and reached as far away as Connecticut.

Weeks later, a major disaster struck Caracas, Venezuela, believed to be a magnitude 7.7 earthquake. Nine months after that event, two massive earthquakes erupted in California. The first struck near the San Andreas Fault in early December 1812, and the second hit Santa Barbara just weeks later.

'When you see these sort of trends you have to pay attention and it adds for example forecasting like a plus one modifier of probability,' Burns said, adding that forecasting relies on both art and science.

Rising Vulnerability Across US Seismic Zones

Official data from the US Geological Survey highlights the growing risk across the nation. The agency recently warned that 159.2 million people live in areas exposed to very strong shaking under their latest hazard model. This marks a sharp increase from the 111.8 million people identified in previous versions.

While California remains one of the most notorious earthquake hotspots in the country, the threat extends to the New Madrid Seismic Zone. This vulnerable region stretches roughly 150 miles along the Mississippi River Valley and covers parts of Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Illinois.

A recent publication from the Geological Society of America warned that a magnitude 7.6 earthquake in the New Madrid zone could cause more than £34 billion ($43 billion) in damage.

Previous models estimated the potential death toll from such an event at more than 80,000 people. Heavily travelled bridges make cities like New York, Atlanta, and St Louis unexpectedly vulnerable, as damaged crossings could trap residents in their neighbourhoods and paralyse emergency traffic.

Meanwhile, the most recent predictions for California from the US Geological Survey examined a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake along the San Andreas Fault in Los Angeles.

According to the Great California ShakeOut model, this disaster would cause roughly 1,800 deaths, 50,000 injuries, and £158 billion ($200 billion) in damages.

Burns previously noted that the Ring of Fire, the vast seismic arc encircling the Pacific Ocean, has seen massive activity on the Asian side recently. This includes a magnitude 8.8 disaster in Kamchatka, Russia, in July 2025. He argued that the system would soon need to balance itself out, shifting violent tectonic activity firmly back toward the Americas.