Donald Trump Records Worst Independent Approval Rating Ever, Polling Below Nixon Before Resignation

President Donald Trump has sunk to the worst net approval rating among independent voters ever recorded for a president at this stage of a second term, falling nine points below Richard Nixon's standing at the height of the Watergate scandal, according to a CNN data analysis.

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten posted the findings on X, writing that Trump's net approval among independent voters had reached -45 points, surpassing the historic lows set by both Nixon (-36 points) and George W. Bush (-37 points) at comparable points in their second terms.

The analysis landed alongside a wave of concurrent polling that collectively painted one of the bleakest pictures of any second-term president in the modern era, with Trump's overall job approval sinking to 33% in a separate University of Massachusetts Amherst poll released 30 March 2026. The White House rejected the findings outright, with spokesman Davis Ingle telling multiple outlets that 'the ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump.'

The -45 Figure

The figure at the centre of the story is a net approval rating, which is calculated by subtracting the percentage of a group who disapprove from the percentage who approve. Among independents, a group that typically sits outside the partisan loyalty that insulates presidents from bad news, Trump's net rating is -45, meaning disapproval outstrips approval by 45 percentage points. Enten framed it clearly on X, saying 'The worst for any prez at this point in term 2. Worse than Nixon (-36 pts) at the height of Watergate!'

Speaking on CNN News Central, Enten elaborated on the historical scope of the finding. 'If there is one big number from this, it is that Donald Trump now has the worst net approval rating among independents of any president ever at this point in Term 2,' he said.

He compared Trump directly to Nixon during the Watergate impeachment hearings and to Bush during the Iraq War, emphasising that Trump was 'nearly ten points worse' than Nixon on this specific measure. His summary read: 'Death Valley. There is no bottom.'

Enten also charted the speed of the decline. In January 2025, Trump's overall net approval stood at plus six points. By April 2025 it was minus three, by July 2025 minus seven, by October 2025 minus ten, and by January 2026 minus thirteen. As of 31 March 2026 it had reached minus 18 points, which Enten described as a 'term two low,' meaning the worst reading of Trump's current presidency. He said the slide was driven by 'a slew of events' rather than any single controversy, and described it as a 'continuous' downward pull with 'no sign of rising.'

Multiple Pollsters Confirm the Same Trajectory

The UMass Amherst poll, conducted 20-25 March 2026 among 1,000 respondents via YouGov with a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, placed Trump's overall job approval at 33%, with 62% disapproving, including 53 % who expressed 'strong' disapproval. That marks the lowest rating recorded in that survey's history for Trump in his second term, and represents an 11-point fall since April 2025. Tatishe Nteta, provost professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll, said the result 'should be a wakeup call to the White House.'

The Economist/YouGov poll, conducted 27-30 March 2026 among 1,679 US adults, placed Trump's overall net approval at -23, which YouGov's Allen Houston told Newsweek was 'the lowest net approval Trump has received in any Economist/YouGov Poll over Trump's first or second terms as president.'

A separate CNN poll conducted by SSRS, released 1 April 2026 and surveying 1,201 adults between 26 and 30 March with a 3.2 percentage point margin of error, found overall approval at 35 % with 64 % disapproving. It also found Trump's economic approval had fallen to a career low of 31 %, with 65 % saying his policies had worsened economic conditions, higher than any reading ever recorded for Joe Biden on the same question.

A Napolitan News Service survey conducted by RMG Research between 25 March and 2 April, sampling 3,000 registered voters with a margin of error of 1.8 percentage points, found 40 % approval against 58 % disapproval, a net of minus 18 points, down from minus nine in the previous RMG survey conducted just a week earlier. Quinnipiac University polling from 19-23 March among 1,191 registered voters similarly recorded 38 % approval and 56 % disapproval.

The Issues Driving the Drop Among Key Demographics

Independents are not the only group registering significant declines. The UMass Amherst poll found that among men, working-class Americans, and African Americans, three constituencies central to Trump's 2024 victory, approval ratings have dropped by close to 20 points since April 2025.

Among moderates, the fall is 18 points. The share of Trump's own 2024 voters who feel 'very confident' in their ballot choice has slipped from 74 % to 62 %, with one in ten now saying they would vote differently or not vote at all if given the chance.

Economic dissatisfaction runs through the numbers. The CNN poll found that 71 % of Americans say Trump is not handling inflation well, and 61 % say the same about his record on jobs. About 75 % say the economy is in poor shape, up eight points since January, with the share calling it 'very poor' up 12 points in the same period.

Gas prices, which have climbed above $4 per gallon in the wake of US military action against Iran, are cutting into household budgets, with 63 % of Americans telling CNN that higher fuel costs have caused at least some financial hardship.

When a president polls worse among independent voters than Nixon did at the moment his own party began writing impeachment articles, the phrase 'historical low' stops being a line in a press release and starts describing something voters may act on.