Trump Hits Worst Poll Numbers in Modern History as His Core MAGA Base Deserts Him Over War and $5 Gas

Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 34 per cent in a Reuters/Ipsos poll released in late April, while his handling of the Iran war and surging gas prices has sharpened unease inside and beyond his Republican base.

The news came after weeks of shifting dates, with the summit moved out of late March and into mid-May because of the Iran conflict, according to White House briefings. Beijing is now the stage for a meeting that both men clearly understand as more than a bilateral photo opportunity. Trump is arriving with domestic numbers under pressure and with questions swirling over how firmly he can steer the war he has described as terminated in correspondence to Congress.

Trump is seeking not only a reset on the Middle East but also something closer to political oxygen. A White House visit can be choreographed, the language softened, the optics managed. Trump's standing at home has weakened and his administration has spent much of this term fighting fires of its own making.

Trump And China's Advantage

Trump has handed Beijing room to manoeuvre. It claims his trade confrontations, fossil fuel backing, restrictions on immigration and cuts to research funding have all worked, in different ways, to China's benefit. Those are political claims, but they reflect a familiar critique of his second-term agenda, that he has leaned hard into slogans while the structural advantages of the United States have become harder to defend.

China enters the meeting from a position of confidence, or at least composure, while Washington arrives looking reactive. Beijing's growing influence in trade, investment, aid and diplomacy, and to the impression that China can afford to project steadiness while the United States looks distracted. Summitry is often less about what is said in the room than what each side believes the other needs.

There is also the awkward business of Trump's own style. He is likely to chase the familiar rewards of presidential theatre, including ceremony, flattery and the appearance of a win. Trump has long preferred visible triumph to patient leverage, and Beijing knows that better than most. It can offer him the pomp he enjoys, keep the language vague and allow him to tell his supporters that he pressed hard, whether or not the substance matches the performance.

Trump, War And Political Risk

The most serious question is not the choreography but the strategic signal. Trump's handling of the Iran war, together with his shifting of military resources away from the Indo-Pacific and the depletion of weapons stockpiles, has encouraged the view in China that the door on Taiwan may be opening wider.

At home, the politics are equally unforgiving. Reuters/Ipsos found Trump's approval at 34 per cent at the end of April, a new low for the term, while separate polling has suggested that even some Republican voters are less settled than the hard-core MAGA faithful.

The gas-price issue only sharpens the pressure. Analysts have warned that fuel could move towards $5 a gallon if the Iran conflict drags on, and Trump himself has tried to talk down the damage by promising prices will 'drop like a rock' once the crisis eases.

That is the background to Beijing. Not triumph, not dominance, but a president trying to stage-manage weakness in front of a rival that has every reason to treat the encounter as useful, and every incentive to let Trump leave believing he has won something.