Oil Prices Crash: Brent Crude Drops Below $100 As Trump Teases 'Bombshell' Iran Peace Deal

Oil prices tumbled on Wednesday as Brent crude slipped below $100 (£74.79) a barrel after US President Donald Trump claimed in Washington that negotiations to end the war with Iran were under way and close to agreement, even as officials in Tehran angrily denied any such talks and insisted American claims were simply not credible.

Brent crude fell around 5% to $99.29 (£74.25) a barrel, while US‑traded oil slid by more than 5.5% to $88.41 (£66.12). Those figures, according to report, mark a sharp swing lower but still leave prices well above the levels seen before 28 February, when the US and Israel launched their latest attacks on Iran.

Oil Prices Crash Reflects Trump's Iran Claims

Trump told reporters on Tuesday that talks to end the war were happening 'now' and claimed the people on the other side of the table 'want to make a deal so badly'.

He named Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as being involved in the discussions, presenting the apparent diplomatic effort as evidence that the US strategy of pressure and strikes on Tehran was working.

Tehran's response was blunt. Senior officials moved quickly to dismiss the idea of any back‑channel negotiations with Washington, accusing the US of using talk of talks to move markets and shape opinion.

Esmail Baghaei, a spokesman for Iran's Foreign Ministry, told India Today that claims of talks were 'fake news', arguing that 'no one can trust US diplomacy'. In a pointed question to Washington, he asked, 'Can anyone believe their claims of diplomacy or mediation are credible when they started this war and continue attacking us?'

Another official, Ebrahim Zolfaqari of the Khatam al‑Anbiya Central Headquarters, which forms part of the unified command of Iran's armed forces, suggested the US was effectively talking to itself. 'Has the level of your inner struggle reached the stage of you negotiating with yourself?' he said.

They have also previously argued that suggestions of contact with the US are attempts to manipulate oil and financial markets rather than reflections of actual diplomacy.

Iran: 'Non-Hostile Vessels' Allowed To Pass Through The Strait Of Hormuz

Several major outlets, including The New York Times, Reuters and Israel's Channel 12, have reported that the US has put a 15‑point proposal to Iran, all citing unnamed sources.

According to Channel 12, the reported plan includes demands that the Strait of Hormuz be fully opened and recognised as a free maritime zone, alongside a list of benefits Iran would receive if it accepted the terms, such as the lifting of sanctions.

In a statement posted by its mission to the United Nations, Tehran said 'non‑hostile vessels' would be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, provided they coordinated with 'the competent Iranian authorities'.

The mission added on X that ships could have safe passage 'provided that they neither participate in nor support acts of aggression against Iran and fully comply with the declared safety and security regulations'.

Analysts quoted in the article say the drop in oil prices suggests traders now view the chances of a prolonged, worst‑case supply disruption as lower than before. Goh Jing Rong of Singapore Management University argued that Trump's remarks have raised hopes that the conflict could ease, but warned that the price move will only hold if there is 'credible follow‑through', such as sustained safe passage from the Gulf.

Markets React As War Grinds On And Oil Prices Stay Elevated

Energy prices surged after the war began, as Iran effectively restricted the Strait of Hormuz and Israel and Iran traded missile fire.

On the military front, the Israel Defense Forces said it had launched a 'new wave of strikes' in Tehran, targeting what it called the infrastructure of the 'Iranian terror regime'.

It also warned residents in the southern suburbs of Beirut to leave their homes as strikes on Hezbollah continued. Earlier, the IDF reported that Iranian missiles had been fired towards Israel, underlining that the core conflict is still very much active.

Equity investors, at least in the Asia‑Pacific region, appear to be taking a slightly more optimistic view. Major stock indexes across the region rose in morning trade as markets digested both the lower oil prices and the signals around the Strait of Hormuz.

Japan's Nikkei 225 and South Korea's Kospi gained more than 2% each, a notable move given both countries rely heavily on oil that passes through Hormuz. Australia's ASX 200 was up by more than 1.8%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Shanghai's composite index each rose by around 1%, according to the figures in the report.

Even so, the relief has limits. The price of Brent crude had climbed back above $100 (£74.79) a barrel on Tuesday and, even after Wednesday's pullback, remains far higher than before late February. That elevated level has already forced governments to roll out measures to shield households and industry from rising fuel and energy costs.

Corporate Leaders Sound The Alarm

Shell chief executive Wael Sawan told an energy conference in Houston that shortages already moving across Asia could hit Europe next month. 'South Asia was first to get that brunt,' he said. 'That's moved to South East Asia, North East Asia and then more so into Europe as we get into April.'

Larry Fink, the boss of US investment giant BlackRock, told the BBC that a global recession could be triggered if crude reaches $150 (£112.18) a barrel.

He warned that if oil stays above $100 (£74.79), or closer to $150 (£112.18), for years because the conflict remains unresolved and Iran is not reintegrated into the international system, the impact would be 'profound' and likely to lead to a 'stark and steep recession'.