Nearly 2 Million Americans Have Been Out of Work for Over Six Months, the Highest Toll Since 2021

The United States added 172,000 jobs in May, well above economist projections, and the headline unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 per cent. But behind those figures, a quieter and far more troubling trend has been building for months — one that the top-line numbers do not tell.

The number of people considered long-term unemployed, or people without a job for 27 weeks or longer, rose by 155,000 to nearly 2 million, the highest since December 2021. For the individuals behind that figure, a positive monthly report offers little comfort.

A Deteriorating Picture Beneath the Surface

The number of long-term unemployed was up by 524,000 over the year, accounting for 27.5% of all unemployed people in May, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. That share — more than a quarter of all those out of work — reflects a labour market where finding employment is becoming increasingly difficult the longer a person remains out of it.

Analysts at the Center for American Progress noted that long-term unemployment, lasting 27 or more weeks, was slightly below its pre-pandemic baseline as recently as 2024, meaning this deterioration is a recent and accelerating trend. The centre also found that the three-month average number of workers out of work for 27 weeks or more is now 43.8% above its 2018–2019 pre-pandemic baseline.

'Steeper Headwinds' for Those Still Searching

Labour economists have been sounding the alarm about what conditions look like for those stuck in prolonged job searches. 'Workers who have been searching for months continue to face steeper headwinds and a more challenging job search than headlines suggest,' said Nicole Bachaud, labour economist at ZipRecruiter.

Cory Stahle, an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, described the dynamic as a 'low-hire, low-fire' labour market in which a rising number of long-term unemployed workers is a predictable feature. Federal labour data shows job opening and hiring rates have tumbled from pandemic-era peaks, signalling that work opportunities are drying up. The group also includes new college graduates struggling to land their first roles.

The long-term unemployed no longer qualify for most unemployment benefits, which are typically capped at 26 weeks, according to William Congdon, a labour economist and senior fellow at the Urban Institute. Even if these workers are actively job hunting, he said, they face stigma from employers due to the gaps on their résumés.

Wages Not Keeping Up Either

The strain extends beyond those without any work. 'Wages aren't keeping up,' Bachaud said. 'Despite the uptick in market activity, workers have yet to translate that momentum into meaningful bargaining power.'

In May, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose to $37.53 (£28.10), reflecting a 3.4% increase over the year, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Yet that gain is being outpaced by inflation. From April 2025 to April 2026, real average hourly earnings decreased 0.2%, meaning workers with steady employment are still losing ground in real terms as energy costs and tariff-driven price pressures continue to weigh on household purchasing power.

The rise in long-term unemployment is significant beyond the monthly jobs report cycle. Economists have long identified prolonged joblessness as a warning sign of deeper structural weakness in a labour market – one that can precede broader economic distress. When a growing share of the unemployed have been out of work for more than six months, it signals not just a shortage of jobs but a widening mismatch between available roles and those seeking them. For policymakers, that distinction matters enormously.