World Cup Quarterfinals Odds: France Leads Betting Board, But Norway's Cinderella Run Steals the Spotlight

The World Cup quarterfinals have arrived with a mix of familiar giants and suprise challengers. France remain the heavy favorite to win the World Cup 2026, according to Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction and betting site. Updated odds show Kylian Mbappé and his squad have a 33% chance of winning it all.

The two-time champions will face its first obstacle to the FIFA World Cup trophy on Thursday, 9 July, during the first quarterfinal game with Morocco, which only has a 3% odds. Beyond Polymarket World Cup odds, FIFA rankings also weigh against Morocco, with France placed first overall compared to the African team's fifth.

Unbeaten in 34 Matches

Morocco has been unbeaten in 34 matches, making them formidable contenders. Captain Achraf Hakimi has recently been hailed 'the world's best right back,' underscoring the squad's strength. It would be phenomenal to see a country yet to win the World Cup get its chance to raise the trophy.

France, for its part, has won the World Cup twice, in 1998 and 2018. Morocco may draw some confidence from off-pitch distractions facing French Captain Mbappé, after Paraguayan Senator Celeste Amarilla made remarks widely condemned as racist against the footballer.

Argentina's World Cup Odds

Can Lionel Messi and Argentina defend their title? Messi won his first World Cup in 2022, the country's third overall. A repeat triumph will further fuel the debate over football's greatest player, a contest often framed between Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, whose Portugal exited the tournament during the Round of 16.

Based on Polymarket bets, Argentina has a 19% chance of becoming back-to-back champions. Spain, once Argentina's colonial power, also has a 19% odds of winning the World Cup.

Argentina, which has been criticised for having the easiest road to the tournament, will face Switzerland on Saturday, 11 July. The Swiss side only has a 2% odds of taking home the trophy, and it is the lowest-ranking squad in the quarterfinals, sitting at #14 compared to Argentina's #2.

Belgium, which was celebrated for their commanding 4-1 victory against co-hosts Team USA, shares the same 2% odds as Switzerland. The Belgian squad trolled President Donald Trump by mocking his dance after eliminating the Americans.

After a call with Trump, FIFA lifted American star player Folarin Balogun's suspension, following a red card in the Round of 32 match with Bosnia and Herzegovina. Despite his return, Balogun failed to lead the Americans to victory.

World Cup's Blond Bombshell

Erling Haaland has become one of the tournament's standout figures, with his long blond locks, light blue eyes and imposing stature earning him global attention. He is also making waves on the pitch, scoring seven goals for Norway throughout the tournament, tying with Mbappé and trailing Messi for the Golden Boot race.

Norway only has a 6% odds of winning the World Cup, but the squad has become an American favourite for their post-game Viking row celebration. Supporters are eager to see them 'row' all the way to the championship. Norway will face England, who carry 16% odds of victory, on Saturday, 11 July.

Are Polymarket Predictions Accurate?

According to research cited by a 2025 CoinMarket Cap Academy report, Polymarket predictions are highly accurate. Data scientist Alex McCullough analysed the site's historical data and noted that it has 90% accuracy in predicting outcomes a month ahead and 94% just hours before an event.