Putin Will Wage War 'As Long as He Is Alive', Says Moscow Based Analyst

Vladimir Putin has no intention of stopping his invasion of Ukraine, according to a Moscow-based defence analyst, who said the war has become 'practically Putin's life's work' and that the Russian leader will keep fighting for as long as he draws breath.

The assessment, published by the Wall Street Journal, comes as Russian forces face mounting battlefield losses that are now outstripping new recruitment, fuelling speculation that the Kremlin may be forced into a fresh mobilisation drive it has spent years trying to avoid.

Losses Outpacing Recruitment

Russia needs to recruit more than 30,000 fresh troops a month to offset its battlefield losses, according to Ukrainian military intelligence estimates, with only around 70,500 new contracts signed in the first three months of 2026, well short of the Kremlin's target.

Putin has so far resisted a fresh mobilisation, wary of the backlash that followed the September 2022 partial call-up, when hundreds of thousands of Russians fled the country.

That earlier mobilisation triggered mass protests and a visible exodus of military-age men, a political cost the Kremlin has since tried to avoid by leaning on financial incentives for contract soldiers instead.

Putin's Life's Work

Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow-based think tank, said Russia's overall military position has deteriorated over the past year.

'The Russian Federation's general strategic position has deteriorated over the past year ... there are signs of exhaustion within the Russian Armed Forces,' Pukhov said.

He was blunter still on Putin's mindset. 'Putin is prepared for a protracted war of attrition which he plans to sit out regardless of the consequences,' Pukhov said. 'This war has become practically Putin's life's work and he will wage it as long as he is alive.'

A Misleading Picture

Western analysts believe Putin's generals may be shielding him from the true scale of Russia's difficulties.

Michael Kofman, a specialist on the Russian and Ukrainian militaries at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Putin 'appears to be fed a drumbeat of inaccurate information that leads him to believe Russian military success is still inevitable' in eastern Ukraine.

Meanwhile, US officials believe Putin's own war aims remain unchanged. He continues to publicly demand Ukrainian territorial concessions and the restoration of Moscow's influence over Kyiv, even as Washington holds out hope that a ceasefire on terms Ukraine can accept may still be possible later this year.

Other analysts see the manpower crunch as more likely to end in a fresh call-up than a negotiated peace. Research from the Atlantic Council suggests Putin may be gambling on a wider mobilisation to sustain the invasion rather than accept diminishing returns on the battlefield.

Pukhov's assessment cuts against hopes in Washington and Kyiv that mounting Russian losses might soon push Putin toward the negotiating table. Analysts at the Atlantic Council have suggested that the manpower crunch is more likely to end in a fresh mobilisation drive than in a negotiated peace. Ukrainian civilians, soldiers and Western governments face the prospect of a prolonged conflict, regardless of Russia's current battlefield setbacks.