Type 2 Diabetes Jumped 69% in Young Women, Nearly 60% Higher Than in Men, as Obesity Starts Earlier

Type 2 diabetes, long regarded as a disease of middle and old age, is now rising fastest among women barely out of their teens. New research shows incidence has climbed 69 per cent among women aged 20 to 29 in England since 2011 — nearly 60 per cent higher than the 43 per cent rise recorded in men of the same age.

The findings come from the first study to track new type 2 diabetes diagnoses across the entire English population by age, sex and ethnicity. They point squarely at obesity taking hold earlier in life than in previous generations.

Why Young Women Are Now the Fastest-Rising Diabetes Group

Researchers at Imperial College London analysed data from the English National Diabetes Audit covering 2011 to 2024, and their results, published in Lancet Regional Health Europe, represent the first study to examine trends in new diagnoses of type 2 diabetes across the entire English population while stratifying by age, sex and ethnicity.

The picture that emerged runs counter to the usual assumption that diabetes is primarily an older person's disease. While incidence is falling among older adults, who still account for most new cases overall, it is rising rapidly in people under the age of 40.

The scale of the divergence is stark. Across the study period, age-standardised incidence rose 43 per cent in men and 69 per cent in women aged 20 to 29, while incidence actually declined by 7 per cent in men and 4 per cent in women aged 60 to 79. Measured annually, incidence in the youngest adults climbed by 2.1 per cent a year in men and 3.0 per cent a year in women. This compares with yearly declines of 1.7 per cent in older men and 1.5 per cent in older women.

Obesity Arriving Earlier And More Severely

The driving force is not simply more obesity, the study's authors say, but obesity setting in earlier and at more extreme levels than in previous cohorts. Dr Shivani Misra, clinical associate professor at Imperial College London and the study's lead author, said: 'We think that the earlier onset of severe obesity in young people is increasing their type 2 diabetes risk in early life and pulling down their age at diagnosis.'

The body-weight data illustrates the shift. The rise in BMI at diagnosis among younger adults was roughly double that seen in older adults, increasing by around five to seven per cent in people under 40 between 2011 and 2024, compared with just two to three per cent in those aged 40 and over. Among White British women aged 20 to 29, average BMI at diagnosis rose from 37.7 to 40.7 over the same period — a far sharper climb than the increase from 31.1 to 32.9 among women aged 60 to 79.

Dr Misra noted the pattern is not confined to any single community. 'Much of the discussion around rising type 2 diabetes in younger people has focused on ethnic minority groups,' she said, adding that while these groups remain disproportionately affected, incidence is 'also increasing in White populations too, showing that this public health challenge is broadening across the generation.' The research team found the rise cutting across ethnicities, with the steepest increases among White, Asian and Black women aged 20 to 29. It was also pronounced in White women aged 30 to 39.

NHS Overhauls Care as GLP-1 Drugs Enter the Frame

The findings arrive as the NHS moves to formally overhaul care for younger patients. Analysis feeding into this and related audit work found 130,000 adults living with early-onset type 2 diabetes in England — more than previously estimated. This prompted the NHS Diabetes Programme to back T2DAY, a new initiative supported by £14 million ($17.9 million) to improve treatment for adults diagnosed under 40. Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust is among the few trusts already running a dedicated type 2 diabetes outpatient service specifically for adults under 40, with Dr Misra supporting the programme's rollout across north-west London.

On the rise of weight-loss injections, Dr Misra was measured rather than triumphant. She said GLP-1 medications, such as those marketed as Mounjaro, Ozempic and Wegovy, are 'one component of tackling rising type 2 diabetes in young adults,' noting that current guidelines now recommend early GLP-1 treatment for young adults with the condition. She cautioned, however, that 'there is still insufficient research on whether using GLP-1 drugs at scale in adolescents and young adults with obesity can sustainably prevent type 2 diabetes or indeed, what would happen after treatment stops,' and said their impact 'should be tracked carefully alongside prevention policies.'

Charities working with diabetes patients described the findings as a warning sign rather than a passing statistic. Helen Kirrane, head of policy, campaigns and mobilisation at Diabetes UK, said: 'The rise in type 2 diabetes among younger adults is deeply concerning. Any diagnosis of type 2 diabetes is serious, but it can be more aggressive in younger people, increasing the risk of devastating complications and cutting lives short.' She added that 'type 2 diabetes is a complex condition without a single cause,' arguing that government action is needed, 'including restricting the promotion of unhealthy food and creating environments that support healthier lives.'

Dr Misra echoed that call for structural change over individual blame, pointing to the widespread availability and marketing of unhealthy foods alongside increasingly sedentary lifestyles. She argued that reducing the future burden of the disease will require stronger public health measures that create healthier environments and help prevent type 2 diabetes from developing in the first place.

For a generation of young women now facing a diagnosis once reserved for their grandparents, the data suggests the clock on prevention has already started running earlier than anyone expected. For more on how the NHS is overhauling early-onset diabetes care, read our explainer on the T2DAY initiative.